Here you can read my op-ed in Now Lebanon in which I comment on the latest clashes in south Lebanon.
23.7.10
Resolution Green-Lighting Israeli Strikes on Iran Introduced by House Republicans
Jamal Abdi
Policy Director, National Iranian American Council
Republicans in the House of Representatives have introduced a measure that would green-light an Israeli bombing campaign against Iran. The resolution, H.Res. 1553 (in full below), provides explicit support for military strikes against Iran, stating that Congress supports Israel's use of "all means necessary" against Iran "including the use of military force". US military leaders have warned that strikes could be catastrophic to US national security interests and could engulf the Middle East in a "calamitous" regional war.
Nearly a third of House Republicans have signed onto the resolution, which has been publicly discussed and circulated by its lead sponsor, Rep. Louie Gohmert (R-TX), for months. The National Iranian American Council is leading calls to oppose the measure, urging those concerned to demand that House Republican Leader John Boehner denounce the resolution.
The introduction of the measure coincides with a pattern of renewed calls for military strikes that have escalated since President Obama signed "crippling" Congressional Iran sanctions into law. Neoconservatives who were instrumental in orchestrating the Iraq War, such as Bill Kristol, and Reuel Marc Gerecht, have led the stepped up calls for military action.
Hawkish former Bush Administration official John Bolton recently laid out the game plan to prod Israel into attacking Iran, arguing that outsiders can "create broad support" for a strike by framing it as an issue of Israel's right to self defense. Supporters for military strikes, Bolton says, should "defend the specific tactic of pre-emptive attacks" against Iran. He urges that Congress can "make it clear" that it supports such strikes and that "having visible congressional support in place at the outset will reassure the Israeli government, which is legitimately concerned about Mr. Obama's likely negative reaction to such an attack."
In spite of enthusiasm from the neocons, top US military leaders have warned of the many dangers of military strikes against Iran. Defense Secretary Robert Gates has argued, "Another war in the Middle East is the last thing we need. In fact, I believe it would be disastrous on a number of levels." Admiral Mike Mullen, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs has expressed his own serious reservations about an attack, stating, "Iran getting a nuclear weapon would be incredibly destabilizing. Attacking them would also create the same kind of outcome. In an area that's so unstable right now, we just don't need more of that." General David Petraeus has warned that a strike on Iran would be utilized by the Iranian government to unite it's otherwise divided populace.
Simulations have been conducted over the past year to assess the outcome of a preemptive military strike against Iran. One such simulation, by the Brookings Institution's Saban Center, found that strikes would draw the US into the conflict that would engulf the region into war, and would enable Iran to use the attacks as an opportunity to unite the Iranian people and dismantle its opposition. The simulation also found that the strikes could not destroy Iran's nuclear program but merely set it back a few years.
An Oxford Research Group report released recently reinforced those findings and also warned that an Israeli attack would be disastrous and would be unlikely to stop Iran's nuclear program. Instead, the report concluded attacks could convince Iran to withdraw from the international Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty and to aggressively seek to develop nuclear weapons.
Iranian activists have urged that even raising the specter of war undercuts the opposition in Iran. "The mere fact that Obama didn't make military threats made the Green Movement possible," noted Akbar Ganji. "A military attack would destroy all of that."
17.7.10
Is Amiri An Old Aid For CIA?
Shehram Amiri, the Iranian scientist who American officials say defected to the United States, only to return to Tehran on Thursday, had been an informant for the Central Intelligence Agency inside Iran for several years, providing information about the country’s nuclear program, according to United States officials, NYTimes reported today.
US officials told the WSJ that Amiri "has given significant, original information that's checked out".
The Washington Post reported yesterday that Amiri received a payment of $5 million that was put into U.S. bank accounts to which he had access from Iran.
A U.S. official familiar with the case of the Iranian nuclear scientist says the United States "clearly got the better end of things."
US officials told the WSJ that Amiri "has given significant, original information that's checked out".
The Washington Post reported yesterday that Amiri received a payment of $5 million that was put into U.S. bank accounts to which he had access from Iran.
A U.S. official familiar with the case of the Iranian nuclear scientist says the United States "clearly got the better end of things."
12.7.10
'Iran nearing nuclear bombs' Russia warns
(BBC)
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev says Iran is "moving closer" to having the potential to create nuclear weapons.
It is one of the first times Moscow has publicly recognised that Iran might be moving towards a nuclear weapon.
Russia, which has strong economic and military ties with Iran, has traditionally been an ally of Tehran.
But it has recently adopted a tougher stance towards Tehran's nuclear drive, and backed the fourth round of UN sanctions that was imposed last month.
"Iran is moving closer to possessing the potential which in principle could be used for the creation of nuclear weapons," Mr Medvedev told a meeting of ambassadors in Moscow.
The US and major European Union powers suspect that Iran is trying to build nuclear weapons. Iran says its nuclear programme is peaceful.
On 10 June, the UN Security Council endorsed a fourth round of sanctions on Iran, including tighter financial curbs and an expanded arms embargo.
Since then, the US and EU have unilaterally imposed additional sanctions, including a ban on investment in Iran's oil and gas industry, as well as trade with key banks and individuals.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has dismissed the vote and rejected calls to halt uranium enrichment - which could have military as well as civilian uses.
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev says Iran is "moving closer" to having the potential to create nuclear weapons.
It is one of the first times Moscow has publicly recognised that Iran might be moving towards a nuclear weapon.
Russia, which has strong economic and military ties with Iran, has traditionally been an ally of Tehran.
But it has recently adopted a tougher stance towards Tehran's nuclear drive, and backed the fourth round of UN sanctions that was imposed last month.
"Iran is moving closer to possessing the potential which in principle could be used for the creation of nuclear weapons," Mr Medvedev told a meeting of ambassadors in Moscow.
The US and major European Union powers suspect that Iran is trying to build nuclear weapons. Iran says its nuclear programme is peaceful.
On 10 June, the UN Security Council endorsed a fourth round of sanctions on Iran, including tighter financial curbs and an expanded arms embargo.
Since then, the US and EU have unilaterally imposed additional sanctions, including a ban on investment in Iran's oil and gas industry, as well as trade with key banks and individuals.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has dismissed the vote and rejected calls to halt uranium enrichment - which could have military as well as civilian uses.
5.7.10
Hezbollah denies Fadlallah the Status Of Marja
In an op- ed he wrote to Annahar commemorating late Ayatollah Mohammad Hussein Fadllalah, Lebanon's Speaker of The House Nabih Berri refrained from using the word "Marja", Arabic to religious and spiritual reference, while referring to Fadllalah.
However, Berri, known for his polished pragmatic tactics, used the word "marja" in his op-ed, yet in a general manner and not in the main title of the late cleric, hence not alarming Hezbollah. Berri himself had a difficult relation with Fadlallah.
Shiites believers choose a marja, whose teachings they follow and to whom they give alms.
While Ayatollah Fadlallah was a marja to Shiites across the Islamic world, in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, as well as in Arab nations, Hezbollah never acknowledged his status. His relation with Hezbollah has suffered ever since 1989, when Hezbollah chose to subscribe to the successors of the founder of The Islamic Republic of Iran Ayatollah Khomeini.
Like Berri, Almanar TV, Hezbollah's propaganda arm, referred to him only as Ayatollah.
In fact the question of the " marjaiyah", has received more urgency in the event of Fadlallah's death. The late sayed is one of two influential Shiite clerics who oppose the theory of "wilayat Al Faqeeh", Rule of the Jurisprudent, the second being Ayatollah Ali Sistani in Iraq.
For beginners, this theory bestows on one individual the divine role of the Shiite 12 Imam Almahdi, and entitles him to be his deputy. Almahdi is messianic Shiite figure who went into occultation in the 9th century and whom Shiite believe he will re-appear before the Day Of Judgment, to rid the world of wrongdoing, injustice and tyranny.
The position of the Waley Alfaqeeh is now occupied by Ayatollah Ali Khamenie of Iran.
Fadlallah argued for the institutionalization of the "marjaiya" as opposed to individual based rule.
Other Shiite clerics, who would at a certain point qualify as "marja" are politically subordinates to the autocratic regime in Iran.
30.6.10
The War on The Truth
For all of those following the detained Alfa employee story, pay attention to the sensitive and gigantic role attributed to him in March 8 media, where the coverage focuses on one particular aspect: Whatever this employee's role was, it is supposed to have allowed the Israelis to "manipulate cell phone data", meaning it allowed Israeli intelligence agencies to fabricate cell phone activities (calls and SMSs) on certain accounts behind subscribers' backs.Whether the Alfa employee is an Israeli spy or not, is something to be determined through official investigation, however it is interesting that March 8 media seems to have "privileged" access to the case. Not only that, it is being very smart in preparing pretext to discredit the expected indictment in PM Rafik Hariri case.
It is now a given fact that a given group of cell phone numbers have played an "instrumental role in the planning of the investigation" as per the conclusions of Mr. Detlev Mehlis, the head of the international independent investigation commission in he Hariri case. Mehlis concluded that "the prepaid telephone cards is one of the most important leads in this investigation in terms of who was actually on the ground executing the assassination. This is a line of investigation that needs to be pursued thoroughly." His conclusions have never been refuted by his successors.
In fact Hezbollah picked up from where some of its friendly media has ended.
Hezbollah MP Mohammad Raad accused Israel of seeking to plot and sow discord among the Lebanese by targeting Lebanon's telecommunications network.
In the same sense of exaggeration displayed in the March 8 media coverage of the arrest of the Alfa employee for charges of spying for the Israeli Mossad, Raad concluded, without the slightest hint of doubt, that "the enemy is controlling all communications in this country" and is capable of "sowing strife through such calls."
Hezbollah's ally, Syrian Socialist National Party, urged the Lebanese government to send the Security Council an urgent complaint stating Lebanon's reservation on the adoption of the International Tribunal of sources and evidence pertaining to the instruments of espionage.
Accordingly, any none preferred indictment, which would be based (among other factors) on cell phone data analysis, would be easily trashed as Israeli conspiracy..
It is not a coincidence that Wissam Eid, a key intelligence officer who was killed in a car bomb on January 25, 2008, was deeply involved in technical analysis to break the group of cell phones which are believed to have played a major role in the crime of assassinating Hariri.
25.6.10
The Real Race for Iran: Human Rights v. Tehran’s Defenders
Josh shahrayar of Enduring America penned an interesting response to "Race for Iran" authers' previous reponse to “Misreading Tehran”, a series of seven articles published on the Foreign Policy website.
RFI authers, one a former CIA and National Security Council official, the other a former diplomat in the State Department, have displayed firm support to the Tehran's neo-cons all through the current crisis, unshaken by the all the detentions, abuses, and unlawful killings since June 2009.
Meeting the Challenge: When Time Runs Out
An update to the Bipartisan Policy Center report on U.S. policy toward Iranian nuclear development. The most immediate national security threat to the United States is Iran’s rapid progress toward achieving nuclear weapons capability—and time is running out. A nuclear Islamic Republic of Iran must be prevented, as it cannot be contained. Indeed, it would spark a dramatically destabilizing proliferation cascade in the Middle East—already a combustible region—and lead to a critical conflict.
Read full report here.
Read full report here.
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