Iran Israel Conflict Inevitable

WSJ makes the argument that unless the West moves quickly to stop a nuclear Tehran, the conflict between the later and Israel would be inevitable.

The reality that Western leaders don't want to admit is that preventing Iran from getting the bomb is an Israeli national imperative, not a mere policy choice. That's a view shared across Israel's political spectrum, from traditional hawks like Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to current Defense Minister and former Labor Prime Minister Ehud Barak.

(...) [I]t represents an existential threat to an Israeli nation that Iran has promised to destroy (...)

Israel also looks warily on the Obama Administration's policy of diplomatic pleading with Iran, which comes after six years of failed diplomatic overtures by the European Union and Bush Administration.

It's no wonder, then, that the Israeli military has been intensively—and very publicly—war-gaming attack scenarios on Iran's nuclear installations. This has included sending warships through the Suez Canal (with Egypt's blessing), testing its Arrow antiballistic missile systems and conducting nation-wide emergency drills.

Israel has Iran in its sights

If diplomacy on Iran fails, by end of September, the world is most likely to face an Israeli attack on Iran's suspected nuclear weapons facilities, Micah Zenko argues in an op-ed in LA Times.
Zenko sums up four past Israeli military operations, about which Tel Aviv didn't bother to inform Washington in advance.

In October 1956, Israel, Britain and France launched an ill-fated assault against Egypt to seize control of the Suez Canal. The day before, Secretary of State John Foster Dulles grilled Abba Eban, Israel's ambassador to the U.S., about Israel's military buildup on the border with Egypt, but Eban kept quiet about his country's plans.

In June 1967, Israel initiated the Six-Day War without notice to Washington, despite President Johnson's insistence that Israel maintain the status quo and consult with the U.S. before taking action. Only days before the war began, Johnson notified Prime Minister Levi Eshkol in a personal message: "Israel just must not take preemptive military action and thereby make itself responsible for the initiation of hostilities."

On June 7, 1981, Israeli fighter-bombers destroyed the Iraqi nuclear reactor at Osirak shortly before it was to be fueled to develop the capacity to make nuclear weapons-grade plutonium. Again, Washington was not informed in advance.
(...)

[O]n Sept. 6, 2007, (...) Israeli aircraft destroyed what was believed to be a North Korean-supplied plutonium reactor in Al Kibar, Syria. (...) An administration official noted that Israel's attack went forward "without a green light from us. None was asked for, none was given."

Iran's Growing Conservative Rift

Leftovers on Iranian President's table on Sunday exceeded his expectation. It wasn't due to a sudden loss of appetite, rather it was too much food to eat almost alone.
Only 20 out of the 290 mostly conservative lawmakers invited by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to a traditional Iftar feast to break the Ramadan fast had showed up, the reformist newspaper Etemad reported.
Tensions between the newly elected president and MPs has been simmering for a while over the cabinet formation and Ahmadinejad's refusal to discuss the ministerial appointments with them.
Mohammad Reza Bahonar, the vice speaker of the Iranian Parliament, said lawmakers would reject "about five" of the 11 Cabinet picks. Bahonar had threatened to push for a vote of no-confidence prior to the official Cabinet nomination by Ahmadinejad on Thursday.
The clerical faction in Iran's conservative-dominated parliament, headed by Mohammad Taqi Rahbar, has its own objections on Ahmadinejad's appointee. Rahbar demanded, alongside some other senior clerics of Qom, that Ahmadinejad reconsider his nomination of three women for his new cabinet due to what he called "religious uncertainties" about women managerial credentials. Ahmadinejad's cheesy decision to appoint 3 conservative women, Marzieh Vahid Dastgerdi, 50, a gynecologist, for health minister; Fatemeh Ajorlu, 43, a lawmaker, for minister of welfare and social security; and Susan Keshavars, 44, a high-ranking employee of the Ministry of Education, for that ministry, earned the ire of Women's rights activists. "These women are just like him, only female," activist Parvin Ardalan told the Washington Post , referring to Ahmadinejad. "This is just an act to gain legitimacy among women."
More to the growing splits between Ahmadinejad backers, conservative rivals handed a new snub to president on Monday, appointing Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejehi, whom the president fired from the post of intelligence minister, as the country's state prosecutor.
Ejehim, who was named by the head of the judiciary, Sadeq Larijani, was dismissed last month in a dispute that reportedly included the authorities' handling of the crackdown on pro-opposition street protesters following the disputed June 12 presidential election. Ahmadinejad publicly criticized Ejehi, saying "if he would have carried out his tasks properly, we would not have these problems on the streets" after the election.
However, his malicious firing-hiring turmoil highlights the new depths reached by the intra-conservative relations and sheds more light on the factional blame game among various bodies of the conservative camp since the crackdown on pro-opposition street protesters following the disputed June 12 presidential election
Larijani hinted he may prosecute the Ahmadinejad strongly backed security agents blamed for torture and other abuses against detainees during the crackdown.
On the other side of the rival conservative "Larijani Axis" stands Ali Larijani, Parliament Speaker and Sadeq's brother. He made it public that the Parliament, due to vote on affirming Ahmadinejad's cabinet line-up from August 30, will only adopt experienced and specialized candidates.
Ahmadinejad is widely viewed by fellow conservatives as giving top posts to close colleagues rather than spreading power among the camp’s factions.
Conservative tensions only add insult to injury.
Ahmadinejad limps into his second term stunned with a resilient reform movement who rejects to bestow any sort of legitimacy on a presidency they consider rigged.
Hence, Ahmadinejad's crisis, and the regime's corollary, are far from over and the coming days are just a testimony to the bumpy rides ahead.

Sadeq Larijani and Militarization of the Iranian Judiciary

In a policy watch penned by Washington Institute senior fellow Mehdi Khalaji, the author concludes that the appointment of Sadeq Larijani as head of the Iranian judiciary, signals that

the judiciary, the IRGC, and the intelligence agencies will be more closely aligned then ever. Presumably, this state of affairs indicates that traditional ayatollahs deeply trained in Islamic law -- but who are not members of the intelligence-military-political circles -- will have a lesser role in government in years to come. Given the unstable situation in postelection Iran, such a scenario could be a recipe for continued and ongoing chaos.

Iran Reformists: Probe The Supreme

A group of former reformist lawmakers appealed to a powerful clerical body in Iran to investigate supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's qualification to rule, in an unprecedented challenge to the country's most powerful man over the post election crackdown.

The call came as controversy heated up yesterday over allegations that protesters detained in the crackdown had been tortured. Hard-line clerics across Iran demanded that a senior reform leader be prosecuted for contending that some detainees had been raped by their jailers.

The former reformist lawmakers' appeal was to the Assembly of Experts, a body of clerics that has the power to name the supreme leader and, in theory, remove him - though such a move has never been tried.

The assembly had no immediate response to the group's letter, sent late Thursday.

But even if the call is ignored, it was the most direct challenge to Khamenei yet in the turmoil that has embroiled Iran since its disputed June 12 presidential election.

The letter breaks a major taboo against overtly targeting Khamenei, whose position atop the political-clerical hierarchy has long been unquestioned. Opposition Web sites reported the letter but did not say how many former lawmakers had signed it.

It denounced the crackdown, in which hundreds of protesters and opposition politicians were arrested and, the opposition says, 69 people killed. It also denounced the trial of 100 politicians and activists accused of seeking to topple the Islamic Republic.

The letter said Kahrizak prison on Tehran's outskirts, where much of the abuse allegedly took place, was worse than the U.S. prisons at Abu Ghraib and Guantanamo Bay.

The former lawmakers said that the supreme leader was responsible for the judicial system and the security forces who carried out the crackdown. They demanded a legal probe based on a provision that says if the supreme leader "becomes incapable of fulfilling his constitutional duties," he will be dismissed.

The letter was addressed to Ayatollah Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the former president and cleric who heads the 86-member Assembly of Experts. He has sided with the opposition in the election crisis, but agreeing to investigate Khamenei would likely be too dramatic a step for him to take.

About two-thirds of the assembly members are strong loyalists of Khamenei and would oppose such a move.

There was no sign that opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi, who claims to have won the vote, backed the letter.

Security forces and the elite Revolutionary Guard crushed the mass protests that erupted in support of Mousavi, who says President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's election victory was fraudulent.

In past weeks, there have been reports of young protesters who died in prison, apparently from torture or other abuse. This week, top Mousavi ally Mahdi Karroubi went further, saying male and female detainees had been raped by their jailers. Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani quickly denied the allegations.

In his sermon at Tehran's main Friday prayers, hard-line cleric Ahmad Khatami denounced Karroubi's allegations as "total slander against the Islamic system" and demanded he be prosecuted.

Israeli Paper Says Strike on Iran Could Delay Bomb

A major Israeli newspaper, Reuters reported, ran a front-page story on Wednesday quoting an unidentified "senior defence official" as saying Israel believed a military strike could disrupt what it says is an Iranian nuclear arms programme.

Under a photograph of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sitting the previous day in the cockpit of an F-15I long-range fighter-bomber, mass-selling Maariv quoted the official as saying Israel could carry out such a strike without U.S. approval but time was running out for it to be effective.

Neither the official nor the paper made any comment on the likelihood of Netanyahu ordering such an operation, speculation over which remains a major risk factor in investors' assessments of the Middle East region and in energy markets globally.

Israel rejects Tehran's assurances it is developing only civilian nuclear facilities and refuses to rule out armed force to stop its Islamist enemy acquiring atomic weaponry that the Jewish state says would threaten its very existence.

Israeli air strikes could "significantly delay" such an arms programme, Maariv quoted the official as saying. That is in line with previous, independent analysts' assessments.

Israel has backed efforts by U.S. President Barack Obama to persuade Iran to curb its nuclear programme.

Maariv said the official added there was "no point" in a strike in the near term, before such discussions had fully begun and before the Americans "despair of the effectiveness of the talks."

The official said: "The Iranians are creating fortifications and camouflage to defend against a strike from the air."

The official added: "The military option is real and at the disposal of Israel's leaders, but time is working against them."

Israel wages war of nerves against Iran and Hezbollah

The Times of London foreign news editor, Richard Beeston's latest two reports on Iran and Hezbollah generated a wide range of comments and analysis.

On Iran Beeston wrote that the Islamic Republic is just waiting for the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's order to build an N-bomb. On Lebanon he quoted IDF officials warning of a dangerous pending escalation between Israel and Hezbollah on the Lebanese border.

Here is Haaretz Amos Harel's take on the two stories.

This week's reports by The Times of London give the impression that Israel is raising the bar in the war of nerves against Iran and Hezbollah. On Monday the newspaper reported that Iran had completed its nuclear research program, and that its progress toward building a nuclear bomb depends only on the decision of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The following day, it warned of the danger of escalation between Israel and Hezbollah on the Lebanese border.

Both articles were written by the paper's foreign news editor, Richard Beeston, who was in Israel last week.

The report on Iran's nuclear program is based on anonymous "Western" intelligence sources. But at a Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee briefing on Tuesday, the head of the Military Intelligence research brigade, Brig. Gen. Yossi Baidatz, used almost identical terms to those of The Times.

Iran, Baidatz told the MKs, will soon reach the point where it can "charge forward toward a nuclear weapon." Beginning in 2011, he said, use of the Iranian nuclear bomb will depend only the decision to deploy it, not on technological factors.

Sources for the newspaper's report on Israel-Hezbollah tensions are not known. The Times quotes Israel Defense Forces Deputy GOC Northern Command Alon Friedman as saying the northern border could "explode at any minute."

The timing of the articles implies that someone in Israel's defense establishment wanted to deliver an explicit, public declaration on both the Iranian and Lebanese fronts. The fact that this source allowed a senior British journalist, to meet with and quote the Northern Command's number-two officer appears not to have been accidental. Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi, and other top officers, seldom grant interviews, much less to the foreign press.

Last week, in the wake of the mysterious explosion at a Hezbollah Katyusha rocket storehouse in southern Lebanon, Haaretz reported on rising tensions on the northern border, though both Ashkenazi and Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Ashkenazi rushed to make reassuring statements.

But Friedman's remarks to The Times are in stark contrast to those of the other top brass. Perhaps Israel has changed tack, or Friedman simply did not receive the army's talking points before his interview. Or maybe Friedman gave the customary response to his foreign guests - ("Don't misjudge this quiet, on the other side the enemy is making preparations"), and the visitor interpreted this as an immediate threat.

The possibility of a confrontation with Hezbollah as a direct result of an Israeli strike appears in every Western assessment of potential developments in the region. But The Times also reported on another, aspect of the conflict, one which had already been hinted at in an Israeli newspaper.

Israel has issued several warnings recently to both Syria and Hezbollah against introducing "destabilizing weapons" to Lebanon. The entry of antiaircraft missiles into the country would seem to be a "red line" from Israel's perspective, one that could lead it into deterrent action against Hezbollah.

But there are two caveats: It will be exceedingly difficult to rally international support for a Third Lebanon War, particularly if it were to erupt over surface-to-air missiles, which are already today deployed in Syria. And if a confrontation erupts between Israel and Iran, Israel is unlikely to ignite a secondary front that would divert resources from the main theater.

Everything related to Iran seems to be related to the wider picture. In recent months Israel has tried to flex its muscles over Iran's nuclear program. In press briefings IDF officers no longer hesitate to refer explicitly to the possibility of an Israeli strike on Iran - a taboo subject for officers until a year ago. Top Air Force officers take pains to stress their pilots' elevated state of readiness for battle, should the need arise.

And there are still more transparent processes underway. Missile-equipped Navy ships and submarines passed through the Suez Canal several times recently with Egyptian assent in what appears to be an implied threat to Tehran. Every few months, foreign journalists receive leaks on comprehensive long-range aerial exercises.

The backdrop to all of this is the nuclear timetable - Iran's progress, the deadline for U.S.-Iranian talks and the possibility of heightened international sanctions.

In this light Israel must stress the concreteness of the military option. Washington, which to Jerusalem seems helpess regarding Iran, finds it convenient to cultivate talk of an Israeli strike to pressure Tehran.

But it could be that Israel is indeed accelerating its preparations for a strike, out of a circumspect reading of the situation and a growing belief that Washington will not come to its aid.

Hezbollah rockets part of Iran and Israel's political game of chess

Richard Beeston wrote the analysis below for The Times:

Surveillance footage, obtained by The Times, reveals that Hezbollah fighters desperately tried to salvage rockets and other munitions after an explosion at a huge ammunition bunker in the village of Khirbet Slim

There is no better place to understand Iranian strategy than the Laleh Park in central Tehran, where young and old gather most afternoons to engage in an ancient form of combat.

Chess has helped sharpen the Persian mind for centuries and may explain how today’s regime is plotting its next move to become a superpower.

Some time over the coming two to three years, Iran will be able to build its first nuclear weapon, granting it membership of the world’s most elite club and putting it on par with Israel as the dominant forces in the Middle East.

If diplomatic efforts fail to halt Tehran, then there is only one last obstacle — the open threat by Israel to destroy Tehran’s nuclear sites before it can complete an atomic weapon.

Israel has the political will and the military muscle to execute an attack against Iran’s nuclear facilities. The range may be beyond anything attempted by the Israeli Air Force, but Iran’s conventional forces are outdated and defences weak. It is assumed that Arab states, whose airspace Israeli bombers and fighters would have to fly through to reach Iran, would secretly cooperate on a mission to blunt the Persian threat.

That is why Tehran is investing so heavily in its Lebanese proxy Hezbollah. The Shia Muslim militia has rebuilt and strengthened its arsenal since the bloody war it fought with the Israelis in 2006. It has amassed tens of thousands of rockets and missiles capable of bombarding half the country.

Israeli planners have no doubt that should they make the fateful decision to attack Iran, they will provoke massive retaliation on an unprecedented scale. The most densely populated areas of the country would come under Hezbollah range, including Tel Aviv, Haifa and Ben Gurion, Israel’s only international airport.

Israel may be able to take Iran’s queen. But in the process it could put itself into check.

Iran is ready to build an N-bomb - it is just waiting for the Ayatollah's order - Times Online

Iran is ready to build an N-bomb - it is just waiting for the Ayatollah's order - Times Online

Shared via AddThis

Report: Iran plane was carrying arms for Hezbollah

Italian newspaper says plane crash north of Tehran which left 168 people dead was caused by explosion of fuses slated to be delivered to Lebanese organization. According to report, members of Revolutionary Guards among casualties.

A fragile time for Iran's president

By Nasser Karimi and Lee Keath from the AP:

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad begins his second term next week undermined by a deepening feud with his fellow hard-liners and under assault from a pro-reform opposition movement that has shown it can bring out thousands of protesters despite a fierce seven-week-old crackdown.

Ahmadinejad sought shelter yesterday with his top supporter, declaring that Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is like a father to him. Ahmadinejad accused his hard-line rivals of trying to drive a wedge between him and Khamenei, who sits atop Iran's clerical leadership and has final say in all state matters.

On Monday, Khamenei will lead a ceremony formally approving Ahmadinejad's second term; two days later Ahmadinejad is to be sworn in before parliament, despite opposition claims that he won the June 12 presidential election by fraud.

In a sign of the growing challenge Ahmadinejad also faces from some in the religious establishment, an influential clerical group at the seminary in the holy city of Qom called for the opposition to continue its campaign against the election results.

The supreme leader has stuck by Ahmadinejad - in part because doing otherwise would be a blow to Khamenei's prestige after he declared the election clean. Still, some hard-liners have warned that they will judge the president's administration by his loyalty to Khamenei, and that if he falls short, he doesn't deserve to lead.

Sensing fragility in the president, rivals within Ahmadinejad's own camp seem to be seeking a greater say in his next administration.

During Friday prayer services in Tehran, a senior ultraconservative cleric told Ahmadinejad to listen to hard-line lawmakers in the makeup of his new cabinet.

"Before naming individuals for ministries, the government and parliament must coordinate," Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati said.

He criticized Ahmadinejad's attempt last month to appoint a vice president opposed by hard-liners and his firing this week of his intelligence minister, Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejehi.

Ahmadinejad has frequently feuded with his own conservative camp, where some complain he keeps power among a tight circle of associates.

In a speech yesterday in the northeastern city of Mashhad, Ahmadinejad said his rivals were trying to create a rift between him and Khamenei. The attempts by "ill-wishers" would fail, he said.

The speech suggested Ahmadinejad will not yield easily to conservatives' meddling. But his rivals seem to see him as vulnerable, since the protest movement that erupted with his reelection shows no sign of flagging. Activists on the Web have called for protests during his inauguration Wednesday.

Doubtful US Briefs Israel on Iran Sanctions

Amos Harel wrote for Haaretz that the Iran-focused talks held in Israel this week by senior Obama administration officials , indicate that the US is more skeptical than before about the likelihood that a diplomatic dialogue, or even harsh sanctions should that option fail, will dissuade the Iranians from their goal.

However, American officials briefed Israel this week on the administration's ideas for intensifying sanctions against Iran if it fails to respond to President Barack Obama's offer of dialogue, Barak Ravid reported for the paper.

The Americans are proposing financial sanctions such as banning insurance on trade deals with Tehran, which would make it difficult for Iran to trade with other countries. They also want to impose sanctions on any company that trades with Iran and use this to pressure other countries, mainly in Asia, to resist making deals with Iran.

(U.S. National Security Advisor James) Jones and his team presented the ideas that the administration is forging, together with France, Britain and Germany, on imposing additional sanctions on Iran via the UN Security Council if the dialogue fails. The Americans are also discussing this issue with Russia, which at this stage objects to further sanctions.

China, which has numerous interests in Iran, also objects to further sanctions. Jones told the Israelis that Obama will therefore go to China soon to try to enlist Beijing to join the coalition.

Meanwhile, John Bolton, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, is the author of “Surrender Is Not an Option: Defending America at the United Nations”, penned an op-ed in WSJ, in which he says that It’s crunch time for Israel on Iran.

Striking Iran’s nuclear program will not be precipitous or poorly thought out. Israel’s attack, if it happens, will have followed enormously difficult deliberation over terrible imponderables, and years of patiently waiting on innumerable failed diplomatic efforts. Absent Israeli action, prepare for a nuclear Iran.