30.5.09

Au nom de la résistance…

Below is my article in the annual supplement of "L'Orient Le Jour". This year's edition was titled:
Resistance Culturelle - Elections 09.



Au nom de la résistance…


Le couloir qui mène aux urgences de l’AUH regorge d’amis et de confrères, ainsi que de responsables estudiantins, de ténors des partis du 14 Mars et de certaines figures du secrétariat général de l’intifada de l’indépendance. Quelques instants à peine se sont écoulés entre l’arrivée du journaliste d’al-Moustaqbal Omar Harqouss – le corps meurtri par une agression contre lui perpétrée, rue Hamra, par un gang de partisans du Parti syrien national social – et le début du défilé d’une centaine de personnes, venues s’enquérir de son état de santé. À peine quelques heures auparavant, Omar poursuivait une rumeur selon laquelle la municipalité de Beyrouth, en application de la décision des partis de retirer leurs slogans et les portraits de leurs chefs des rues de Beyrouth, avait donné l’ordre d’enlever une petite plaque du PSNS, placée près de deux anciens cafés de Hamra, le Modka et le Whimpy, pour commémorer l’acte de Khaled Alwan, un jeune martyr du PSNS qui fut l’un des premiers résistants à l’occupation israélienne de la capitale. Les héritiers de Alwan supportèrent mal la vision de Omar Harqouss près de leur icône. Ils se jetèrent aussitôt sur lui et le rouèrent de coups, en visant spécifiquement sa tête, son cou et sa colonne vertébrale. Le journaliste manqua de peu d’être paralysé.
L’accusation portée contre Omar Harqouss est liée à son action au sein des médias du Courant du futur ? « Comploter contre la Résistance ». Une accusation consacrée dans la pratique au lendemain de la guerre de juillet 2006, et qui servit à classer les Libanais entre « ceux qui sont loyaux à la Résistance » et « ceux qui complotent contre elle », avant de se traduire sur le terrain par l’agression du 7 mai 2008 contre une partie de Beyrouth et de la Montagne. Ce sera d’ailleurs une occasion de terroriser et de tuer, mais aussi de bombarder et de brûler les bureaux du quotidien al-Moustaqbal et de fermer les locaux de la Future TV, sous le slogan de la « protection de la Résistance ».
Cette agression ne sortait pas du contexte de la « culture de la résistance », dans la mesure où l’adhésion à cette dernière est un état qui est supérieur à toute autre relation de parenté et qui constitue une procuration passant outre au droit positif et civil en usage. La punition infligée à Omar Harqouss ou la riposte armée contre des décisions du gouvernement, ainsi que le déclenchement d’une guerre civile limitée sous le chapiteau de la Résistance et de sa protection confèrent ainsi de facto à cette Résistance des droits qu’elle ne possède pas en réalité et qu’elle s’est autoattribués, et lui accordent un statut juridique qui échappe au cadre du contrat établi par les Libanais entre eux. Ces pratiques trouvent leur fondement dans la légitimité révolutionnaire ; d’ailleurs, l’histoire des résistances elles-mêmes n’est qu’une longue confrontation entre cette logique insurrectionnelle et la légitimité constitutionnelle.
Mais le plus grave reste sans conteste que la « culture de la résistance » se propage jusque dans le discours politique de forces qui ont touché du doigt l’ampleur de l’impossibilité, dans la pratique, de la coexistence entre le projet de la Résistance et celui de l’État, et qui ont fondé toute leur dynamique politique, depuis l’an 2000, sur la démonstration de cette coexistence impossible. Ainsi, certains de ceux qui ont protesté contre l’agression dont Omar Harqouss a été victime se sont-ils fondés, pour construire leur argumentation, sur l’appartenance de ce dernier à la Résistance autrefois. Aussi se sont-ils demandé comment ceux qui « prétendent représenter la Résistance » (insulte dirigée au PSNS actuel) ont-ils pu agresser un vrai résistant qui a combattu Israël. La question relative au fait de rendre justice à Omar Harqouss a donc été envisagée sur base de sa légitimité d’ancien résistant, et non de citoyen libanais possédant des droits et des devoirs en vertu de la Constitution et des lois. Il s’agit là d’une adhésion claire à la dynamique d’élévation de la résistance de son statut de réaction à l’occupation, quelle qu’elle soit, à celui de source de légitimité.
Ce processus, certains courants politiques, dont le haririsme, se sont appliqués avec zèle à le cautionner pour éviter tout le temps de se heurter au concept de la résistance, même lorsque leur projet politique faisait l’objet d’une guerre d’usure de la part de cette dernière. Il est peut-être utile à cet égard de rappeler le rôle joué par certaines opérations militaires du Hezbollah, ainsi que leur timing syrien, dans la tentative de porter un coup au dynamisme de Rafic Hariri sur le plan économique au niveau international. Un dynamisme dont le but était de consolider les éléments de l’indépendance libanaise à travers l’économie, transformée en moyen privilégié pour accéder à une souveraineté libanaise méritée. Malgré tout cela, le haririsme n’a pas manqué d’annoncer son adhésion, de différentes manières, à la résistance. L’illustration la plus marquante de cette adhésion est probablement le rôle principal joué par Rafic Hariri dans l’élaboration des arrangements de mai 1996 entre le Hezbollah et Israël, sous l’égide des États-Unis et de la Syrie.
En retraçant aujourd’hui le parcours de Hariri, on ne peut s’empêcher d’évoquer son rôle dans la résistance et la protection qu’il a assurée à cette dernière, usant de sa position de Premier ministre. Ce rappel est certes un hommage mérité à l’homme, qui vise à souligner les véritables aspects de son expérience au pouvoir, en politique et en économie. Mais il vise aussi à mettre en exergue la capacité de la résistance à renforcer sa position au sein de la légitimité politique libanaise, à partir de la règle selon laquelle il ne saurait y avoir d’égalité entre ceux qui résistent et les autres, ceux qui ne le font pas.
Mais le sommet du surréalisme politique dans la mise en relief du triomphe de la « culture de la résistance » réside dans les derniers virages joumblattistes, qui abaissent Walid Joumblatt de parrain de l’intifada de l’indépendance au rang de celui qui dispute au député Oussama Saad la délimitation des frontières de la « capitale » de la résistance, en affirmant qu’il s’agit de la Montagne, alors que Saad prétend qu’il s’agit de Saïda…
Élever la résistance, en tant qu’idée absolue, au stade de référence constitue un signe de l’existence de déficiences très dangereuses au niveau de la culture et des valeurs. L’on pourrait même dire que la victoire de la « culture de la résistance » (qui est par ailleurs une expression élastique et indéfinie) est le résultat de ces déficiences. Cette glorification de l’idée de la résistance est due à la propension de la société libanaise dans son ensemble à la banalisation, la répétition et l’occultation de la critique et de ses espaces dans le but de faciliter l’édification des modèles, des statues et des dieux.
Il s’agit aussi d’une glorification résultant de la transformation de la résistance en l’antithèse de son rôle. Dans le principe, la résistance devrait en effet défendre les civils et les protéger en repoussant l’occupation, après l’effondrement de l’État. Or elle s’est transformée en résistance au projet de l’État et en opération de terreur organisée contre les citoyens qui ne peuvent, compte tenu de la situation, que l’encenser et y adhérer, ou bien participer à des dialogues stériles qui ne peuvent en fin de compte que consacrer la légitimité de l’idée de la résistance et de sa culture, l’élevant ainsi à un rang supérieur à celui de l’État, de sa Constitution et de ses institutions.
Ce qui précède n’est en aucun cas une invitation à la reddition ou à une révolte armée face à l’hégémonie de plus en plus grandissante de l’idée de la résistance, mais bien un appel à faire preuve d’audace et à ébranler ce concept, à travers un chantier critique, à la fois sur le plan politique et culturel, ainsi qu’au niveau des valeurs. Un chantier auquel je n’aimerais en aucun cas donner le nom de « résistance culturelle ».

29.5.09

Zakaria wrongly dismisses Taqiyyah

In his latest piece in Newsweek Farid Zakaria chose to swim against the current on Iran. He argues that "everything you know about Iran is wrong".

Everything you know about Iran is wrong, or at least more complicated than you think. Take the bomb. The regime wants to be a nuclear power but could well be happy with a peaceful civilian program (which could make the challenge it poses more complex).

Among the evidences he provides to support his argument are the Rgiem's declared intentions.
Zakaria's weakest point is taking what could be propganda talk at face value, betting that Islam prohibts lying. He writes:

Now, of course, they could all be lying. But it seems odd for a regime that derives its legitimacy from its fidelity to Islam to declare constantly that these weapons are un-Islamic if it intends to develop them.

Well in Shiite Islam, this duality, could be easily practised under the notion of "taqiyah".

Britanica defines this term as follows:

The practice of concealing one’s belief and foregoing ordinary religious duties when under threat of death or injury. Derived from the Arabic word waqa (“to shield oneself”), taqiyyah defies easy translation. English renderings such as “precautionary dissimulation” or “prudent fear” partly convey the term’s meaning of self-protection in the face of danger to oneself or, by extension and depending upon the circumstances, to one’s fellow Muslims. Thus, taqiyyah may be used for either the protection of an individual or the protection of a community. Taqiyyah has been employed by the Shīʿites, the largest minority sect of Islam, because of their historical persecution and political defeats not only by non-Muslims but also at the hands of the majority Sunni sect.
Zakaria's argument that Iran might not be seeking the bomb is hardly unique though. It even echoes Israeli voices.

OC Military Intelligence Maj.-Gen. Amos Yadlin says that wethear Iran assembles the bomb or not is rather a question of strategy not of capability. Last March his statement to Jerusalem Post was more than chilling:

Iran is continuing to amass hundreds of kilograms of low-enriched uranium, and it hopes to exploit the dialogue with the West and Washington to advance toward the production of an atomic bomb (...) it is incorporating the goal of producing an atomic bomb into its strategy.



Sick V. The Leveretts

Time Magazine’s bureau chief in Cairo nicely recaped a debate between Gary Sick and Flynt Leverett and Hillary Mann Leverett about US-Iran policy.

27.5.09

Between the lines of the Der Spiegel report

Here you can read my article on Der Spiegel's story about Hezbollah's alleged involvement in killing Lebanon's PM Rafik Hariri.
In this piece, much to the contrary of Spiegel's report claims, I argue why Syria's regimes if not off the hook yet.
More will follow.

Al Manar's Scam?

These guys are hilarious
www.syriatruth.net was reactivated and the date of the last update now reads, 17/02/2009 ... The site, though, notifies its surfers that it is not being updated "till further notice"..
This was its last update.. Bingo!!

Al Manar's Scam?

In its news cast on the eve of 26/05/2008, Al Manar TV aired a lead story in which it claimed that Der Spiegel's report on "an alleged "involvement" of Hezbollah in the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri was not a scoop since the Syriatruth.net electronic site published the same information six months ago".

Here are some thoughts on Al Manar's story that turned out to be merely a scam



Almanar's story about a report attributed to Nizar Nayouf and mirrors what was published in Der Spiegel seems to be a huge scam.

First, the URL www.syriatruth.net which Almanar's reporter referred to does not exist anymore. It was jammed and you could only cash it for the time being.

The other site related to Nayouf is www.syriatruth.org.

This site was last updated in 21/07/08, almost four months before the date of the claimed report which was dated 24/12/2008.

On top of that, there is no trace for the claimed article on Nayouf's site. "Search" retrieves no results no matter what inquiry you use.

The only trace all over the web of Nayouf's claimed article is this fishy page http://vcoders.org/forum/showthread.php?t=38553

It is telling as well that the claimed article was immediately echoed by Filkka and Quds Press, probably the two farthest sources from reality...

The whole story is invented and the claimed Arabic article which mirrors Der Spiegel's report simply doe not exist

On a different note, Nizar Nayouf whom Al Mannar referred to as a member of the opposition who lives in Paris, is a former political prisoner in Syria.

However, he is thought to have been recruited by the Syrian intelligence. Based on these suspisions Nayouf is being avoided by, virtually, all the factions of the Syrian opposition.

24.5.09

In Lebanon the media is endangered

Here's my essay on the latest claims by Hezbollah that Lebanese media is involved in a plot against Hassan Nasrallah AND It appears on Now Lebanon.

In this piece I argue that Hezbollah is bashing some media outlets as pretext to silence the growing expressions of disagreement with its policies and strategies.

23.5.09

New Evidence Points to Hezbollah in Hariri Murder



The United Nations special tribunal investigating the murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri has reached surprising new conclusions -- and it is keeping them secret. According to information obtained by SPIEGEL, investigators now believe Hezbollah was behind the Hariri murder.

18.5.09

Israel Might Not Wait To Prove The World Is Wrong On Iran

In the Middle East it is a race between distances and deadlines. While US President Barack Obama is engineering his Iran Policy and pushing for a grand peace settlement in the Middle East, Jordan King Abdullah II is talking about imminent peace or imminent war in the coming year and a half and Tel Aviv is on permanent drill to overcome distance-related obstacles in preparation for a possible attack on Iran.




Earlier this month, French weekly L'Express reported that IAF planes carried out maneuvers

3,800 kilometers away from home. More than 100 Israeli F-16 and F-15 fighters took part in the exercise over the British colony of Gibraltar, vindicating Israel's resilience to attack Iran if it continues with its widely believed to be weaponry nuclear program.

This exercise seemed to be an advancement after the secret raid last January on a weapons convoy in Sudan which was destined to Gaza. The London Times reported that the Israeli F16 bombers, protected by the F15s

"which were refueled in mid-air, flew around 2800 km (1,750 miles) from Israel to Sudan and back. The distance from Israel to Natanz, the uranium enrichment center in Iran, is 1450 km (900 miles) one way".


Another during-operation-test was how to apply advanced technology to paralyze communication networks and radar devices in the countries over which the F-15s and F-16s fly.

In a detailed study by Abdullah Toukan and Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, the two respectful researchers note that
"the IAF used this technology in the raid on the Syrian nuclear reactor in Dayr az-Zawr, in September 2007".

In addition, IAF reservists who operate the Arrow and Patriot missile defense systems are spending one day a week on duty, JPost reported.

If Israel, however, opted for a ballistic attack option it would take advantage of advancements it made in distance related areas, though it would be sacrificing part of the accuracy edge provided by its air force. Toukan, Cordesman study offers insightful details about Israel's capabilities which Haaretz summed up as follows:

The study lays bare Israel's missile program and points to three missile versions it has developed: Jericho I, II and III. The Jericho I has a 500-kilometer range, a 450-kilogram warhead, and can carry a 20-kiloton nuclear weapon. Jericho II has a 1,500-kilometer range, and entered service in 1990. It can carry a 1-megaton nuclear warhead. Jericho III is an intercontinental ballistic missile with a range of 4,800-6,500 kilometers, and can carry a multi-megaton nuclear warhead. The study says the latter was expected to enter service in 2008.

Alerting enough, these exercises are taking place amid high Israeli public approval of an air attack against Iranian nuclear plants. Not only two thirds of the Jewish country's population favor such an attack, but three fourths of them don't see US approval as a necessary precondition, a recent survey shows.

Hence, Washington have pushed and seems to have succeeded in convincing Israel to avoid any unilateral surprise attack against Iran's nuclear program. CIA director Leon Panetta made sure he hears this commitment first hand from Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu, defense minister Ehud Barak and other top Israeli officials when he was dispatched on secret mission to Israel in early May .

The US administration fears that such a move would jeopardize its efforts to reach out to Iran and peacefully defuse the standoff over its nuclear program, which Israel sees as "an existential threat".
IDF Intelligence Chief Amos Yadlin repeated in front of
the Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee his warning that Iran is few steps away from obtaining "military nuclear capabilities", adding that the situation will become "critical" as next year kicks up.

Yet, Washington rejects to set deadlines and expiry dates for its diplomatic efforts as Tel Aviv insists, rather indicating that it won't let these efforts "string out forever" .
"We're not setting any deadline. And we're not interested in setting any kind of specific or even notional time-line," State Department Spokesman Ian Kelly insisted in response to media reports that "the administration and European allies have set a target for early October for determining whether engagement with Iran is making progress".

Nevertheless, addressing a rarely suspicious Israel of how reliable an ally the US is, President Barack Obama told the Newsweek magazine he doesn't
"take any options off the table with respect to Iran".

This is hardly an assurance. A couple of weeks earlier, US Defense Secretary Robert Gates stressed that targeting Iran's nuclear facilities would not be enough to remove the threat. "(It) will only buy us time and send the program deeper and more covert," he said. On the other hand, EU and US promised sanctions are not more assuring. Let alone the controversy over the effectiveness of sanctions, Israel's doubts that the international community will go forward with "crippling" ones were expressed in Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon words.
“If the world would just work together with determination and impose sanctions, then we may not need military action.”
"We may not".. he said

It is common knowledge, though, that the EU countries enjoy booming economic relations with Tehran for which it has little reasons to severe. Iran-Italy trade stood at 6.1 billion euros in 2008 compared to $2.7 billion in 2001. In a recent meeting between Fereydun Haqbin the caretaker of Iran’s embassy In Italy and a wide bouquet of industrialists, bankers, and managers of big firms, the two sides discussed ways to expand trade ties.

German companies trade with the amount of about 4 billion euros per year with Iran, while still enjoying subsidies from Chancellor Angela Merkel's cabinet.

Amid growing demand on energy, Iran is looking forward to play a future role in the European goals of energy diversification, a priority which topped its agenda in 2008. Germany, whose consumption of about 100 billion cubic meters of gas a year represents a fifth of the total in the European Union, received Iran's Oil Minister Gholamhossein Nozari in the first week of May. Nozari encouraged German commercial executives to invest in the Iranian energy sector and hinted that his country was intensifying plans on a so-called "Persian pipeline", which would transport gas from Iran to Europe. The Iranian minister expressed his countries readiness to cooperate on the Nabucco pipeline project, a 3,300km centerpiece pipeline in Europe’s energy policy to reduce imports from Russia by providing the region with gas from central Asia.

Iran's official Islamic Republic News Agency was very fast to report on what underscores its vantage point as the World's second reserve of natural gas. One of its report said German commercial mogul, pledged to pressure Merkel to ease trade restrictions on Iran in order to move toward bilateral deals in the energy sector.

In the meantime, Iran is expected to finalize a new version of its previous package of proposals to the six major powers and present it during the resumed talks with the 5+1 group over its nuclear program. In absence of deadlines, in Israel this would be dubbed as "buying time". In fact Thérèse Delpech, a leading nonproliferation expert at France's Atomic Energy Commission, uncovered part of this game last October at a Brookings Institution lecture.
"We [the Europeans] have negotiated during five years with the Iranians . . . and we came to the conclusion that they are not interested at all in negotiating, but . . . [only] in buying time for their military program" she said.

Notwithstanding, Israel's assurances that a none-coordinated attack on Iran is off the table, the got-it-alone mood in the country is growing. History suggests that Israel, in somehow similar situations, trusts none but itself. Even the very pragmatic notion that Iran, had it assembled the bomb, would refrain from attacking Israel, fearing an Israeli nuclear retaliation, doesn't sell.

Iran is more and more perceived to be in an apocalyptic mood. Princeton Professor Bernard Lewis offers a mind twisting argument on the matter:

For a group… whose main leader is [Iranian President Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad, the apocalyptic time has come. “Ma’adi,” the Muslim messiah is already here. The final battle has already begun. That is important for another reason, and that is concerning Iran’s nuclear weapon. The Soviet Union had weapons right through the cold war, but neither side used them because they were aware the other side would use them as well. It was called mutual assured destruction (MAD) which was the main deterrent of using the weapons. For most of the Iranian leadership, MAD would work as a deterrent. But for Ahmadinejad and his group, with their apocalyptic mindset, MAD is not a deterrent, but an inducement. They believe that the end of time has come and the sooner the better. So the good can go enjoy the delights of paradise and the wicked, meaning all of us here, can go to eternal damnation.”
Hence, would Israel wait to prove the world is wrong on Iran? Much of what is taking place suggests to the contrary.

12.5.09

What would Assad Choose?

Assad is up and kicking, with Damascus prime national export to Iraq is hitting the shelves again.
No, it is not "Barazee", Syria's famous cookies, but rather "Islamic foreign combatants".

An unnamed senior US military official told the Washington Post on Sunday, that number of
foreign fighters being pushed through the network has risen from "less than half a dozen" to "20 a month".

The Post reported that Syria had reactivated a network used by Al-Qaeda to smuggle Islamic fighters into Iraq, something very similar to what General David Petraeus, Chief of US Central Command, told Congress late last month.

Syria, being unable to deliver on US demands to help halting Hamas and Hezbollah activities, is fishing for bargains with Washington in Iraq. Hence, what better bate would Damascus have than this "reactivated pipeline", given that US troops have begun preparing for withdrawal.

CBS News reported on that same Sunday night (what a tough newsy weekend for Assad), that Syria has rebuilt the structure which housed the reactor bombed by Israel last year and has turned the site into a facility for manufacturing chemical and biological weapons.

Official sources told the network that Syria had significantly expanded its biological and chemical weapons program by doing so.

David Bedein, Philadelphia's "The Bulletin" Middle East Correspondent, wrote the following:
A senior American intelligence source in Washington told the Israeli media Syria had denied having rebuilt the structure and also denied it was part of its biological and chemical weapons program. American satellite imagery, however, showed unequivocally that Syria was lying.

The discovery of the renewed Syrian biological and chemical weapons program adds to a series of differences of opinion that has left the Syrians and Americans in a deadlock.
In the mean time Syria is still the destination of some leaders, and events will shed more light on how much the Syrian regime is ready to "play a positive role". Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas is due in Damascus on Thursday for talks with Assad. The PA chief needs Syrian efforts to tame Hamas in the "under Egyptian auspices national dialogue" to form a government of national unity.

Assad already met with and Jordan's King Abdullah II who is on board of a promotion campaign for a US peace initiative dubbed as "57-state solution". The new American plan, something close to Arab Initiative For Peace on steroids, aims at seeing the Arab and Muslim world recognise Israel as part of the deal.

For Assad to be part of this Washington says "he knows what he needs to do".

Abdullah told Britain's The Times newspaper on Monday that "the world is going to be sucked into another conflict in the Middle East" if peace failed. The Jordanian king warned that "If we delay our peace negotiations, then there is going to be another conflict between Arabs or Muslims and Israel in the next 12-18 months".

Time is running short and Assad has to pick sides before it is too late.

10.5.09

Suleiman, Hezbollah on a colliding course

Alhayat Newspaper reported from Beirut that Lebanese PM Michel Aoun discussed shortening President Michel Suleiman's term, with candidates to be nominated on his electoral lists. Fares Boueiz a former FM and an independent candidate to the Parliament uncovered in a press conference part of his back door negotiations with Aoun. The later is said to have preconditioned ultimate abidance by his block's policies to endorse candidates, a matter that Boueiz found worrying. "I'm afraid that we might face dramatic changes in the coming months leading to reestablishing the republic" Boueiz said.

Interestingly enough, Michael Almurr a prominent Christian politician and a former ally of Aoun framed the electoral battle as one against those who want to "topple the system in Lebanon".

Sources familiar with Aoun's thoughts expressed in privacy, say the former Army chief general considers Suleiman's presidency unconstitutional, on the basis that Suleiman didn't resign his position as Army Chief General, as required by law, 6 months prior to his election.

In addition, Hezbollah is thought to have promised Aoun on the sides of Doha meetings in May 2008 that Suleiman's presidency will be re-assessed in one year before considering other steps towards him.

Time is due, and differences between President Suleiman and Hezbollah-Aoun-Syria-Iran axis are crystallizing.

In early December 2008, Damascus orchestrated a "public" five-day visit for Aoun. Meetings with senior Syrian officials, public and religious ceremonies and casual associations with the Assad family were on Aouns "Syria Journey" agenda.
Stark differences between Aoun's visit and the one payed earlier by president Suleiman were not missed neither in Lebanon nor abroad. Assad explained in an interview granted later to Alhayat that Syria was showing gratitude for Aoun "who played a major role in the preparations for Doha agreement" and that "he sacrificed his 'right' to become the president" to facilitate the agreement that groomed Suleiman as agreed-by-all president. For Assad Suleiman owes his presidency to Syrians Christian ally Michel Aoun, who maitains his position as Damascus beloved son.

During the war in Gaza, a round of rockets was launched from south Lebanon toward northern Israel, among wide speculations that Hezbollah would soon interfere in support for Hamas.
Suleiman was among the fist Lebanese officials to condemn the attacks. "I will not allow southern Lebanon to become a rocket launching pad" against Israel he said while stressing the centrality of the UNSCR 1701 as the main commander of the situation in the south.

In addition, Suleiman was caught, during this war, in the middle of the escalating intra-Arab tensions. He was forced to attend the Arab emergency summit convened by Syria and Qatar in Doha, after enormous political and public pressure from Hezbollah and company on him to choose between the Doha summit or the one already scheduled in Kuwait and supported by Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
In Doha, however, Suleiman managed to walk a fine line. Acknowledging that the summit failed to reach the needed quorum, he never, in his speech, referred to the gathering as "summit" but rather as "emergency consultation meeting". He also made sure to highlight Lebanon's supportive position to the Arab Initiative For Peace, which Assad, in the same meeting and minutes prior to Suleiman's speech, declared dead.

Even when Suleiman hinted that he might be endorsing candidates in the upcoming parliamentary elections, he was met with a fierce campaign, primarily from the Aountists and the Hezbollah-affiliated daily Al-Akhbar. Aoun said that the president's independent block, if materialised won't be more than an extension of the " the Christians of the March 14th forces" adding that "any faction that is not with us is against us. We run in the elections in order to win, and we are not afraid of anyone..."

In the past weeks, Suleiman went against Hezbollah's position on the fate of Doha agreement after the parliamentary elections. While Hezbollah officials have repeated that the Doha agreement will be relevant even after the election, to which March 14 strongly objected, Suleiman said the the Taef Agreement in the primary reference that governs the Lebanese. Contrary to Taef Agreement which gave Birth to Lebanon's constitution, Doha Agreement, reached in the aftemath of the semi-civil war in May 7 2008 gives the Hezbollah-led-opposition veto power in the cabinet.


Suleiman will keep trying to maintain an "at arm's length" relationship with Hezbollah in the hope that the post election equation will provide him with more political advantages to exercise his powers especially if March 14 won the ballots. However if March 8 concluded the race, the president will find himself left with bitter options. Either to concede and play by Hezbollah rules or be forced to leave the office.
In any chance, be it on the fate of Doha, the president's share in the parliament, the balance that the president is trying to maintain in his Arab relations, UNSCR 1701, the relations with Syria, Suleiman is, sooner or later, on a colliding course with Hezbollah-Aoun-Iran Syria axis.

Nadim Koteich

9.5.09

Syria's Influential and Positive Role

While "Abu Hussein" (Damascus preferred nick name for President Obama) has renewed US sanctions against Syria for another year, you could read below the expectations of "credible Syrian sources" in the period leading up to this step...

The Administration cited a continuing “national emergency” facing the US from Syria’s support for terrorist organisations and weapons trade.

Here you go with the Syrian genuine understanding of the game rules in DC which is reflected below in this report from Alkhaleej newspaper


أكدت مصادر واسعة الاطلاع في العاصمة السورية أن السفير الأمريكي سيعود إلى دمشق قبل نهاية الشهر الجاري، واشارت الى ان هذا الموضوع سيكون على رأس قائمة ما سيبحثه مساعد وزيرة الخارجية الأمريكية لشؤون الشرق الأوسط جيفري فيلتمان مع المسؤولين السوريين خلال زيارته القريبة الى دمشق، حيث سيرافقه مسؤول مجلس الأمن القومي الأمريكي دانيال شابيرو.

وأضافت المصادر في تصريح خاص ل”الخليج”: “إن دمشق تتوقع ألا يجدد الرئيس أوباما العقوبات الاقتصادية والتجارية التي فرضها سلفه جورج دبليو بوش على سوريا، أو على الأقل أن يخفف منها إلى حد بعيد، بحيث تعطل عملياً، وهذا ما أكده للمسؤولين السوريين بعض أعضاء الوفود الأمريكية التي زارت دمشق مؤخراً”. واكدت المصادر أن إقدام أوباما على تجديد العقوبات على سوريا، وهو أمر مستبعد، سيكون بمثابة ضربة قوية لمسيرة الانفتاح بين البلدين، وهذا ما أبلغه المسؤولون السوريون للوفود الأمريكية الزائرة.



Even The Governor of the Central Bank of Syria Adib Mayaleh said: "If the American administration did not renew Syrian Accountability Act ; Damascus would consider that the right path to better relations."

On the other hand, U.S. State Department spokesman Robert Wood, said that Washington expects Syria to " try to use its influence to help the parties move towards peace .. if Syria was willing to play a positive role in helping to push forward the two-state solution, this is welcome."

George Mitchell, American special envoy for peace in ME, visited a number of countries in the region recently, but he did not visit Syria.

"We welcome the readiness of Syria to play a positive role in helping promote the two-state solution," Wood added , pointing out that "what we need to see is action, and we hope to engage Syria to play an influential and positive role in the region, because it is an important country in the Middle East" .





mmmm.... Let's pose for a moment here.. Washington is talking about an "influential and positive role" for Damascus in the region in return for its "actions".... This means two things

1- Syria's conduct of business must go way beyond the smart "hamedieh interpreneurs' bargain tricks" and deliver deeds rather than words

2- "Influential" is obviously an ego massage term used to describe Syria's role in the future, while "positive" stands for the opposite of every thing the Bathists are doing at the moment...

On a final note, we'll keep on reading how March 14 must be scared of this "rapprochement"....

8.5.09

Nasrallah and the 4 musketeers

Here's my latest commentary on Sayed Nasrallah's observations on the Int. tribunal and the release of the 4 musketeers.

On The "Innocent" 4 Generals and March 14 Lies

الأسباب الموجبة لأحتجاز الضباط الأربعة أوردها المحقق الأيرلندي بيتر فيتزجيرالد الذي أرسله الأمين العام للأمم المتحدة ألى بيروت على رأس لجنة لتقصي الحقائق بعد أحد عشر يوما على أستشهاد رفيق الحريري ورفاقه. جاء في التقرير الذي أصدره فيتزجيرالد، الذي لم يعترض عليه أي من المحققين الدوليين لاحقا، الآتي:"أن الأجهزة الأمنية اللبنانية أظهرت أهمالا منظما وخطيرا في القيام بالواجبات التي تؤديها عادة الأجهزة الأمنية الوطنية المحترفة. وخلال قيامها بذلك، فشلت على نحو خطير في توفير مستوى مقبول من الأمن، وهي لذلك ساهمت في أنتشار ثقافة الترهيب والأفلات من العقاب. وتشارك الأستخبارات العسكرية السورية في هذه المسؤولية من خلال تورطها في أدارة الأجهزة الأمنية اللبنانية

After gathering the available facts, the Mission concluded that the Lebanese security services and the Syrian Military Intelligence bear the primary responsibility for the lack of security, protection, law and order in Lebanon. The Lebanese security services have demonstrated serious and systematic negligence in carrying out the duties usually performed by a professional national security apparatus. In doing so, they have severely failed to provide the citizens of Lebanon with an acceptable level of security and, therefore, have contributed to the propagation of a culture of intimidation and impunity. The Syrian Military Intelligence shares this responsibility to the extent of its involvement in running the security services in Lebanon.

For more details click here

2.5.09

Why Mitchell is bypassing Damascus



The Jerusalem Post Internet Edition

Analysis: Why Mitchell is bypassing Damascus

Apr. 16, 2009
ANDREW J. TABLER , THE JERUSALEM POST

US special envoy to the Middle East George Mitchell is scheduled to visit Israel, the Palestinian territories, Egypt, the Persian Gulf, and North Africa this week. Conspicuously absent from his itinerary is Damascus. Despite a Syrian public relations campaign designed to exploit Washington's opening gestures with Syria as a major policy change, the exclusion of Damascus from the envoy's agenda demonstrates that the Obama administration continues to pursue cautious and critical engagement with the regime of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad.

The Syrian-US Expectations Gap

Following the November 2006 Iraq Study Group's recommendation to engage Syria and Iran, the Assad regime hired a British public relations firm to develop a strategy targeting the international community. In January 2007 Abdulsalam Haykal - a businessman close to the Syrian regime - and Syrian historian and political commentator Sami Moubayed launched Forward Magazine (Syria), a monthly English-language glossy periodical that, according to its website, looks at "the bright side of things." The magazine featured a number of articles by or interviews with Syrian ambassador to the United States Imad Moustapha that were intensely critical of US Syria policy.

In the wake of US speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi's April 2007 visit to Damascus, a stark gap in expectations emerged between Damascus and Washington. The Assad regime demanded talks on "the horizon of issues" and a "package deal" on "comprehensive peace" that would solve some bilateral issues at the expense of others. In Washington, however, policymakers sought progress on all issues, most notably Syria's support for terrorism, efforts to undermine Lebanon's sovereignty, an investigation into the murder of former Lebanese premier Rafik al-Hariri, and increasing evidence of extensive Syrian facilitation of foreign fighters into Iraq. Many also doubted that the Bush administration or its successor would conduct immediate high-profile engagement with Damascus, pointing to the poor track record of US officials engaging Assad and Damascus's new and unexpected maximalist demands for engagement.

Moubayed was soon tapped by the regime to serve on the "US-Syria Working Group" -- a "Track Two" dialogue between Syrians and Americans organized by the US-based Search for Common Ground. After Syria announced in May 2008 that it was involved in indirect peace talks with Israel, Moubayed and two other Syrians visited Washington the following July to exchange views with a number of policy think tanks and former US officials with the goal of narrowing the gap between the two positions.

Not only did Syria's expectations remain unrealistically high, but it was clear Damascus anticipated an early visit from the next US president as well. Two days following Barack Obama's election, Moubayed penned the article "Abu Hussein's Invitation to Damascus," which outlined ten things Obama must do by inauguration for Syria to receive him "as a guest of honor in Damascus, the way it did with Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton." Some of the Syrian points, including appointing a US ambassador to Damascus, helping Syria deal with Iraqi refugees in Syria, and sponsoring Syria's indirect peace talks with Israel, were well known to US officials. Unexpected, however, were further demands that Washington lift US sanctions on Syria, recognize "that no problems can be solved in the Middle East without Syria," and "help Syria combat Islamic fundamentalism." While Moubayed later insisted his article only reflected his own views, journalists and analysts widely regarded them as reflecting those of the Syrian regime.

No Grand Gestures

Following Obama's inauguration on January 20, Syria's public relations campaign stalled. In addition to existing concerns with Damascus, US officials were particularly concerned by Syria's refusal to comply with International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) requests for further inspections at al-Kibar -- the clandestine nuclear facility destroyed by Israel in September 2007, where IAEA inspectors found traces of uranium and graphite. So instead of the kind of grand gesture Syria wanted, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton dispatched Assistant Secretary of State for Near East Affairs Jeffrey Feltman on February 26 for talks with Moustapha. In the meeting, Feltman raised the issues of Syria's "support to terrorist groups and networks, acquisition of nuclear and nonconventional weaponry, interference in Lebanon, and worsening human rights situation."

Regime spokesmen immediately attacked Feltman for using the "language of the neocons." Following the meeting, however, both sides labeled the talks "constructive," leading to another round of discussions in Damascus on March 7 between Feltman and National Security Council Middle East director Daniel Shapiro and Syrian foreign minister Walid Mouallem. Following the talks, Feltman announced that both sides had found "a lot of common ground" and that instead of setting "benchmarks" for Damascus, each side was watching the future "choices" of the other.

Two days later, Assad stepped into the fray. In the ensuing twenty-three days, he gave six interviews to international media. But rather than dealing with the issues discussed during Feltman and Shapiro's visit, Assad targeted Israel, offering it only a cold peace, blaming outgoing Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert for the failure of recent indirect Syrian-Israeli negotiations, and refusing to talk about cutting ties with Hizballah, Hamas, and Teheran. In another interview, Assad implied he had been asked to mediate between Washington and Teheran. Then, in his first-ever email interview with an American journalist, Assad told the New Yorker's Sy Hersh that he not only sought US mediation with Israel, he also wanted direct contact with President Obama.

In the latest installment of the campaign, Moustapha told the Washington Times editorial board on April 7 that the United States had signaled a sea change in its relations with Syria, claiming that relations with Washington are suddenly so amicable that US officials said, "We will never ask you to kick [Hamas politburo leader] Khaled Meshaal out of Damascus." He also predicted that Mitchell would soon visit the Syrian capital.

Washington's Cautious and Critical Approach

Contrary to Moustapha's predictions, no such policy shift has taken place. Instead, Washington continues to utilize a step-by-step pragmatic approach to engaging Damascus. Unlike most other countries on the US State Sponsors of Terrorism list, the United States and Syria have diplomatic relations and functioning embassies. Following the Feltman-Shapiro meeting, Washington is now watching Damascus's choices on the issues discussed. Thus far there has been some diplomatic motion on Lebanon and Iraq. On March 24, Syria officially appointed its first-ever ambassador to Lebanon (who has yet to be posted). Syria's foreign minister, Mouallem, visited Baghdad the following day for talks on border security and committed Syria to "whatever help is necessary" for a successful withdrawal of US forces from Iraq. Washington is now waiting for Syria to follow through on both commitments. On the ground in Damascus, Syria has allowed the reopening of the American Language Center, an English-language institute affiliated with the embassy that was closed along with the embassy's cultural center and the American school following the October 29 US raid on terrorist bases near the eastern Syrian town of al-Soukkariya.

In other areas of US concern, however, progress has yet to be made. Syria continues to refuse IAEA requests for further inspections or to talk about its worsening human rights situation. Finally, Damascus has yet to evince its much-trumpeted ability to rein in weapons smuggling by Hamas or to bring the group into a Palestinian unity government with Fatah.

Dilemmas Reveal Intentions

With Damascus unfortunately more interested in public relations than in addressing outstanding bilateral issues, Washington's step-by-step approach seems set to continue. In the short term, a key test to see if Syria is capable of cooperating with Washington will be Lebanon's June 7 parliamentary elections, which US policymakers are watching closely to see if the poll will take place without Syrian interference or assassinations. Concerning Iraq, Washington is waiting to determine whether Syria can follow through on its promises to stop the flow of jihadi fighters across its borders.

In the long term, however, Washington's biggest challenge will be to devise a strategy that puts the Syrian regime into policy dilemmas that will reveal whether it will eventually conclude and implement a peace treaty with Israel and realign itself away from Iran. By making clear agreements with the United States and implementing them, Assad has the opportunity to rebuild trust with Washington. Only when this is accomplished will grand presidential gestures to Damascus become a viable option in Washington's competitive policy environment.

Andrew J. Tabler, cofounder and former editor-in-chief of Syria Today, is a Soref fellow at The Washington Institute.

Reprinted with permission of The Washington Institute for Near East Policy.