30.6.10

The War on The Truth

For all of those following the detained Alfa employee story, pay attention to the sensitive and gigantic role attributed to him in March 8 media, where the coverage focuses on one particular aspect: Whatever this employee's role was, it is supposed to have allowed the Israelis to "manipulate cell phone data", meaning it allowed Israeli intelligence agencies to fabricate cell phone activities (calls and SMSs) on certain accounts behind subscribers' backs.

Whether the Alfa employee is an Israeli spy or not, is something to be determined through official investigation, however it is interesting that March 8 media seems to have "privileged" access to the case. Not only that, it is being very smart in preparing pretext to discredit the expected indictment in PM Rafik Hariri case.

It is now a given fact that a given group of cell phone numbers have played an "instrumental role in the planning of the investigation" as per the conclusions of Mr. Detlev Mehlis, the head of the international independent investigation commission in he Hariri case. Mehlis concluded that "the prepaid telephone cards is one of the most important leads in this investigation in terms of who was actually on the ground executing the assassination. This is a line of investigation that needs to be pursued thoroughly." His conclusions have never been refuted by his successors.

In fact Hezbollah picked up from where some of its friendly media has ended.

Hezbollah MP Mohammad Raad accused Israel of seeking to plot and sow discord among the Lebanese by targeting Lebanon's telecommunications network.
In the same sense of exaggeration displayed in the March 8 media coverage of the arrest of the Alfa employee for charges of spying for the Israeli Mossad, Raad concluded, without the slightest hint of doubt, that "the enemy is controlling all communications in this country" and is capable of "sowing strife through such calls."


Hezbollah's ally, Syrian Socialist National Party, urged the Lebanese government to send the Security Council an urgent complaint stating Lebanon's reservation on the adoption of the International Tribunal of sources and evidence pertaining to the instruments of espionage.

Accordingly, any none preferred indictment, which would be based (among other factors) on cell phone data analysis, would be easily trashed as Israeli conspiracy..

It is not a coincidence that Wissam Eid, a key intelligence officer who was killed in a car bomb on January 25, 2008, was deeply involved in technical analysis to break the group of cell phones which are believed to have played a major role in the crime of assassinating Hariri.

25.6.10

The Real Race for Iran: Human Rights v. Tehran’s Defenders



Josh shahrayar of Enduring America penned an interesting response to "Race for Iran" authers' previous reponse to “Misreading Tehran”, a series of seven articles published on the Foreign Policy website.
RFI authers, one a former CIA and National Security Council official, the other a former diplomat in the State Department, have displayed firm support to the Tehran's neo-cons all through the current crisis, unshaken by the all the detentions, abuses, and unlawful killings since June 2009.

Meeting the Challenge: When Time Runs Out


An update to the Bipartisan Policy Center report on U.S. policy toward Iranian nuclear development. The most immediate national security threat to the United States is Iran’s rapid progress toward achieving nuclear weapons capability—and time is running out. A nuclear Islamic Republic of Iran must be prevented, as it cannot be contained. Indeed, it would spark a dramatically destabilizing proliferation cascade in the Middle East—already a combustible region—and lead to a critical conflict.

Read full report here.

15.6.10

Nejad's Ayatollah Mentor Preaches For Nuclear Bomb Production

In a thinly veiled statement the hard-line spiritual mentor of Iran’s president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has made a rare public call for producing a nuclear weapon.
Ayatollah Mohammad Taqi Mesbah Yazdi wrote the following in his book “The Islamic Revolution — Surges in Political Changes in History’’:


The most advanced weapons must be produced inside our country even if our enemies don’t like it. There is no reason that they have the right to produce a special type of weapons, while other countries are deprived of it.
(...) Under Islamic teachings, all common tools and materialistic instruments must be employed against the enemy and prevent [the] enemy’s military superiority.

Yazdi’s hard-line views, including devotion to the Mahdi, a messiah-like figure to reappear ahead of judgment day, have had a strong impact on President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who shows him more respect than any other senior cleric.

Yazdi's book was written in 2005 and then reprinted last year, but would have only had a very limited circulation among senior clerics and would not have been public knowledge.

2.6.10

Iran Selling 45 Billion Euros of Reserves for Dollars

By Ali Sheikholeslami



June 2 (Bloomberg) -- Iran’s central bank began the first phase of the 45 billion-euro ($55 billion) sale of some of its reserves for dollars, the state-run Jaam-e-Jam newspaper reported, citing people it didn’t identify.

The bank is selling 15 billion euros in the first of three stages, which will be completed by Sept. 22, the newspaper reported on its website on May 31.
Iran will “substantially” decrease its oil sales in euros, the paper said. It informed Japan and other crude-oil customers of the change, Jaam-e-Jam said. The Persian Gulf country’s euro reserves are 55 percent of the total, and would be reduced to 20 to 25 percent after the sale is complete and after oil sales in euros have been reduced, the paper said.
Iran’s shift out of euros has been prompted by the single currency’s decline, said Jaam-e-Jam, which is owned by the state broadcaster. Other central banks, including those of the Persian Gulf states, also are selling their euro reserves, it said.
The euro was little changed against the dollar, rising 0.1 percent to $1.2241 at 12:45 p.m. in New York.
The euro made up 27.4 percent of global currency reserves at the end of 2009, according to the most recent data available from the International Monetary Fund. While that was down from 27.8 percent in September, it was up from 26.4 percent a year earlier.
Experts in Iran’s central bank have suggested the country buy gold because they forecast the precious metal’s price will increase, Jaam-e-Jam said.
Euro’s Decline
The euro has fallen 15 percent against the dollar this year, reaching a four-year low yesterday, amid concern the debt crisis that started in Greece will spread to other nations and dent economic growth. The slide forced European Union leaders to piece together an almost $1 trillion loan package last month as confidence in the euro’s status as an alternative reserve currency to the dollar faded.
Gold is up 11 percent this year and is headed for a 10th annual gain, the longest rally since at least 1920. The metal reached a record $1,249.40 an ounce on May 14 and traded at $1,223.05 an ounce in London today.

1.6.10

Iran Has Fuel for 2 Nuclear Weapons

In their last report before the United Nations Security Council votes on sanctions against Iran, international nuclear inspectors declared Monday that Iran has amassed more than two tons of enriched uranium, an amount sufficient, with further enrichment, to feed two nuclear heads.

The toughly worded report, details aspects of the Iranian nuclear program which would render the LEU swap deal offered by the P5 + 1 some 8 months ago unattractive.

Iran had now enriched 2,427 kilograms to just over three percent level. That means shipping out 2,640 pounds (1,200 kilograms) now, as per the swap deal terms, would still leave Iran with more than enough material to make a nuclear weapon.

The NY Times cites further details from the report:
It also describes, step by step, how inspectors have been denied access to a series of facilities, and how Iran has refused to answer inspectors’ questions on a variety of activities, including what the agency called the “possible existence” of “activities related to the development of a nuclear payload for a missile.”
(...) The inspectors reported that Iran had expanded work at its sprawling Natanz site in the desert, where it is raising the level of uranium enrichment up to 20 percent — the level needed for the Tehran Research Reactor, which produces medical isotopes for cancer patients. But it is unclear why Iran is making that investment if it plans to obtain the fuel for the reactor from abroad, as it would under its new agreement with Turkey and Brazil.
In addition the inspectors say sensitive equipment that could be used to extract plutonium for an atomic bomb has gone missing from a Tehran laboratory months after the apparatus was disclosed to a United Nations watchdog agency, LA Times reports:
IAEA inspectors were told in January by a scientist or official at Tehran's Jabr Ibn Hayan Multipurpose Research Laboratory that Iran was conducting pyro-processing experiments, work potentially consistent with creating warheads that could be used in developing a nuclear weapon.

But during an April 14 inspection of the laboratory, the equipment — used to remove impurities from uranium metal — had been removed, said the agency's report to its board of governors ahead of a meeting next week. Iran had earlier backtracked, insisting to inspectors it was not engaged in pyro-processing work.

Arms control experts say the apparent attempt to experiment with pyro-processing adds to the cloud of suspicion that hangs over Iran's nuclear program.