30.12.09

Khamenei Might Flee Iran

Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Khamenei could flee to Russia should the situation in his country continue to spiral out of control, according to Radio Netherlands.
The media organization reports that the Supreme National Security Council ordered a check-up Sunday of the jet on standby to evacuate Khamenei and his family should the need arise.
If Khamenei does depart the country, it would be reminiscent of an historic event in Iranian history: Jan. 16, 1979, when the Iranian Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlevi fled Iran following an increase in violent protests. The anniversary of that event is coming up soon.
The plane check is already being viewed by some as an indication that Khamenei will in fact leave Iran, as protests continue.

29.12.09

Public Enemy In Iran

A crucial moment, a tipping point, a turning point, a Berlin Wall moment and many other adjectives and parallels are in place in international media trying to grasp the nature of events taking place in Iran.

Iran stands on the brink says Massoumeh Torfeh in a op-ed in the Guardian. The situation in Iran has reached the point of no return she concludes.


The leader is now surrounded by the hardline clergy, right of centre politicians, Revolutionary Guards and Basij militia, who are calling for direct confrontation. This can only lead to further bloodshed. The opposition is now calling for more strikes and attacks at important centres of power such as the state TV, where clashes took place yesterday. And February sees the 31st anniversary of the Islamic Republic. There is talk of a military coup by the Revolutionary Guards if the situation does not settle down.
Iran is facing a long period of political instability; and with increasing tensions in neighbouring Pakistan, plus the volatile situation in Afghanistan and Iraq, regional security appears more precarious than any time in the recent past.



Simon Tisdall wonders in the same paper if what's taking place in Iran is a second revolution.

What's changing, as the battle lines sharpen, is that fantasy politics and paranoid posturing can no longer conceal the widening fissures – economic, social and ethnic as well as political – that are splintering Iranian society.
Maybe the regime can still cling to power. But the legitimacy of Khomeini's republic is all but shot. The infallibility of the Vali al-Faqih is blown. The "month of blood" is upon them.

Ali Ansari pens a very thoughtful piece in the Independent in which he says that the government in Iran is way out of control.

This is in many ways a crucial moment. Many of those who have hedged their bets will now begin to reassess their loyalties. Can Islam really be identified with Khamanei? Is Ahmadinejad really the best the Islamic Republic can do? Where in the Holy Koran – as demonstrators chanted – does it say you can sexually assault prisoners?
It is the brutality of the government response to the initial protests that has profoundly shaken Iranians, who are now confronted with an attempt to reimpose an extreme version of Divine Right.
The Iranians have responded forcefully, and with considerable courage, to these demands. This is not a disorganised mob, but a well-marshalled and coordinated crowd. Preoccupied with the events of 1978, observers earnestly cast around for a "leader". But this battle between accountability and autocracy has much more in common with an earlier movement, the Constitutional Revolution of 1906.
There was no single leader then, but there was a powerful idea. And today the means of disseminating that idea is much more potent. With literacy over 90 per cent and more than 25 million registered internet users, and 50 million mobile phone accounts, the days of Divine Right monarchy are long past their sell-by date. Change is coming to Iran.

Ramin Ahmadi goes a bit further in his comments in the Forbes magazine online edition. Iran's regime is on the ropes he says.


The military regime in Tehran is in its final days. The signs of an imminent collapse, perfectly traceable on the Iranian streets.

Robin Wright considers the events in Iran as the country's Berlin Moment. He goes on to describe the green movement as the "the most vibrant and imaginative civil disobedience campaign in the world."

It is time to start wondering out loud whether Iran’s uprising could become one of those Berlin Wall moments.
… [t]he green movement is far more than simply sporadic eruptions. This is the most vibrant and imaginative civil disobedience campaign in the world.

So far the green movement has insisted on non-violence. Perhaps the ultimate irony in the Islamic Republic today is that a brutal revolutionary regime suspected of secretly working on a nuclear weapon faces its biggest challenge from peaceful civil disobedience. And even such a militarised regime has been unable to put it down.

It is not only the media that finally starts taking the events in Iran right. Consider this Washington Post editorial.

[m]ore than ever, the Obama administration and other Western governments must tailor their policies toward Iran to reflect the centrality of the Green Movement's fight for freedom. While diplomatic contact with the regime need not be broken off entirely, by now it should be obvious that it cannot produce significant results -- and might serve to shore up a tottering dictatorship.
President Obama shifted U.S. policy partway in the right direction when, during his Nobel Prize speech this month, he departed from his prepared text to say that "it is the responsibility of all free people and free nations to make clear that" the Iranian protesters "have us on their side." He went further Monday with an admirably strong statement that condemned "the violent and unjust suppression of innocent Iranian citizens" and called for "the immediate release of all who have been unjustly detained.

17.12.09

Seized N.Korean weapons likely destined for Iran - source

By Ambika Ahuja
BANGKOK (Reuters) - Weapons seized in Thailand from an impounded plane traveling from North Korea were likely destined for Iran, said a high-ranking Thai government security official on a team investigating the arms.
"Some experts believe the weapons may be going to Iran, which has bought arms from North Korea in the past," said the official, quoting Thai government military experts who also took part in an investigation of the weapons.
Speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorised to talk to the media, he said the Thai investigating team considered Iran a likely destination because of the type of weaponry, including unassembled Taepodong-2 missile parts.
Security analysts have said North Korea's long-range Taepodong-2 is a product of joint efforts with Tehran, coinciding with Iran's development of the Shehab-5 and 6 missiles.
"Some of the components found are believed to be parts of unassembled Taepodong-2 missiles," the official said.
U.S. lawmakers have expressed concern about North Korea's close missile cooperation with Iran, which Washington suspects is seeking to build nuclear weapons. The relationship dates to the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s when Pyongyang shipped Scud missiles.
The components were discovered among 35 tonnes of weapons sealed in 145 crates of cargo seized by Thai authorities when the plane landed in Bangkok on Friday to refuel. The buyer and destination of the weapons have been shrouded in mystery.
A Thai court on Monday extended the detention of the five-man crew -- four from Kazakhstan and one from Belarus -- by 12 days to give authorities more time to investigate.
They each face 10 years in prison if found guilty of illegal possession of heavy weapons.
U.N. SANCTIONS
The weapons would breach a U.N. Security Council resolution in June banning communist North Korea from selling arms in response to defiant nuclear and missile tests.
The official said he understood Iran in the past had bought North Korea's Taopodong-1 multi-stage missile, which has an estimated range of up to 2,500 km (1,553 miles). It uses liquid fuel and was fired over Japan in 1998.
Taepodong-2 was first test-launched in July 2006 and flew for about 40 seconds before it blew apart. It is a multi-stage missile with a possible range of 6,700 km (4,163 miles). Another version was launched in April and flew about 3,000 km (1,864 miles) before splashing into the sea.
Thai authorities have said the airplane's cargo contained rocket launchers, explosives, ammunition, rocket-propelled grenades and components for surface-to-air-missiles.
Police Colonel Supisarn Bhakdinarinath, the chief investigator, said on Tuesday an initial estimate of the value of the weapons, most of which were unused, was about $18 million.
But Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said it was too early to determine a value, adding that a closer inspection is necessary to determine their worth, where they may have been produced and where they were being delivered.
Crew members have denied knowledge of any weapons on board and indicated that the plane stopped en route to Sri Lanka and the Middle East to refuel.
The seizure came days after President Barack Obama's special envoy made a three-day trip to the communist state to persuade Pyongyang to rejoin six-nation nuclear disarmament talks.
Arms are a vital export item estimated to earn North Korea more than $1 billion a year. Its biggest arms sales come from ballistic missiles, with Myanmar, Iran and Middle Eastern states among their customers, according to U.S. officials.
In August, the United Arabs Emirates seized a ship carrying North Korean-manufactured munitions, detonators, explosives and rocket-propelled grenades bound for Iran, the first since sanctions against North Korea was strengthened. The containers were disguised as oil equipment.
(Editing by Jason Szep and Bill Tarrant)

Obama told China: I can't stop Israel strike on Iran indefinitely

By Barak Ravid and Natasha Mozgovaya, Haaretz Correspondents

U.S. President Barack Obama has warned his Chinese counterpart that the United States would not be able to keep Israel from attacking Iranian nuclear installations for much longer, senior officials in Jerusalem told Haaretz. They said Obama warned President Hu Jintao during the American's visit to Beijing a month ago as part of the U.S. attempt to convince the Chinese to support strict sanctions on Tehran if it does not accept Western proposals for its nuclear program. The Israeli officials, who asked to remain anonymous due to the sensitivity of the matter, said the United States had informed Israel on Obama's meetings in Beijing on Iran. They said Obama made it clear to Hu that at some point the United States would no longer be able to prevent Israel from acting as it saw fit in response to the perceived Iranian threat.
After the Beijing summit, the U.S. administration thought the Chinese had understood the message; Beijing agreed to join the condemnation of Iran by the International Atomic Energy Agency only a week after Obama's visit. But in the past two weeks the Chinese have maintained their hard stance regarding the West's wishes to impose sanctions on the Islamic Republic. The Israeli officials say the Americans now understand that the Chinese agreed to join the condemnation announcement only because Obama made a personal request to Hu, not as part of a policy change. The Chinese have even refused a Saudi-American initiative designed to end Chinese dependence on Iranian oil, which would allow China to agree to the sanctions, said the Israeli officials. Saudi Arabia, which is also very worried about the Iranian nuclear program and keen to advance international steps against Iran, offered to supply the Chinese the same quantity of oil the Iranians now provide, and at much cheaper prices. But China rejected the deal. Since Obama's visit, the Chinese have refused to join any measures to impose sanctions. The Israeli officials say the Chinese have been giving unclear answers and have not been responding to the claims by Western nations. Beijing has been making do with statements such as "the time has not yet arrived for sanctions." China's actions are particularly problematic because China will take over the presidency of the UN Security Council in January. Western diplomats say China would have no choice but to join in sanctions if Russia agrees to support them, but China could delay discussions and postpone any decision until February, when France becomes council president. The Israeli officials say Russian President Dmitry Medvedev is showing a greater willingness for sanctions on Iran, despite hesitations by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

Behind scuttled nuke pact, Iran’s regime in turmoil - The Boston Globe

Behind scuttled nuke pact, Iran’s regime in turmoil - The Boston Globe

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13.12.09

A Sample Of Velayet El Fakih's Justice

In the video below,an enraged woman’s voice can be heard as a paramilitary truck runs a motorbike off the road amid a crowd of fleeing protesters.
“This is the Islamic Republic!” she shouts, gesturing at the vehicle.
That message has grown increasingly common in recent protests, as demonstrators have made it clear that their target is not just President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, or the disputed election that returned him to power in June, but the entire foundation of Iran’s theocracy, Robert F. Worth reports for NYTimes

In Iran, Protests Gaining a Radical Tinge


By ROBERT F. WORTH, for NYTimes

BEIRUT, Lebanon — In the video, one of hundreds filmed during Iran’s nationwide demonstrations on Monday, an enraged woman’s voice can be heard as a paramilitary truck runs a motorbike off the road amid a crowd of fleeing protesters.

“This is the Islamic Republic!” she shouts, gesturing at the vehicle.

That message has grown increasingly common in recent protests, as demonstrators have made it clear that their target is not just President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, or the disputed election that returned him to power in June, but the entire foundation of Iran’s theocracy.

During Monday’s demonstrations, the civil tone of many earlier rallies was noticeably absent. There was no sign of the opposition leader Mir Hussein Moussavi, a moderate figure who supports change within the system, and few were wearing the signature bright green of his campaign.

Instead, the protesters, most of them young people, took direct aim at Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, chanting, “Khamenei knows his time is up!” They held up flags from which the “Allah” symbol — added after Iran’s 1979 revolution — had been removed. Most shocking of all, some burned an image of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the father of the revolution.

That creeping radicalization has underscored the rift within Iran’s opposition movement, analysts say, and poses a problem for its leaders, including Mr. Moussavi and the reformist cleric Mehdi Karroubi.

“The longer this goes on, the more difficult will it be for the likes of Moussavi and Karroubi to sustain their current position,” said Ray Takeyh, an Iran expert at the Council on Foreign Relations who has worked for the State Department. “They have to at some point opt for regime survival or become the leaders of an opposition movement calling for more than reform.”

Some in Iran have even speculated that Mr. Moussavi and Mr. Karroubi were uncomfortable with the most recent round of protests, which were timed to coincide with a holiday commemorating the killing of three students by the shah’s forces in 1953. While they were involved with earlier protests, the opposition leaders did not organize the most recent ones. They do not appear to have attended any of them and have been silent since. It is not clear how much influence they have over the movement, which often seems to be built more around semi-spontaneous mobilizations over Facebook and Web networks than with the aid of any clear leadership.

The aggressive tone of Monday’s protests may partly reflect the fact that they took place on and around university campuses, where radical sentiment is more common.

But students have long been central to social movements in Iran, where the population is now overwhelmingly young; as Mr. Moussavi himself pointed out last weekend, 1 in 20 Iranians is a student. And this week’s protests, in at least a dozen cities and towns across Iran, were much broader than the ones that shook Iran in 1999, said Rasool Nafisi, an academic and Iran expert at Strayer University in Virginia.

Even before the latest round of protests, a number of high-ranking figures in Iran had taken note of the opposition’s trend toward radicalism. Over the weekend, Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, an influential former president, warned in a speech that “the young and the elite have been estranged from the regime” and criticized the government for using the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij militia against protesters.

Mr. Rafsanjani, a founder of the Islamic Republic who has provided crucial support for the opposition since the election, added pointedly that “there are some conservatives who think the people’s vote is just a decoration.” He admonished this group, saying, “If they want us to rule, we will; if they don’t, we will go.”

Other leaders have also called for a greater spirit of compromise from the government. Among them is a prominent conservative cleric, Grand Ayatollah Naser Makarem Shirazi, who noted last week in remarks to I.S.N.A., a semiofficial news agency, that a “large number” of people had voted against Mr. Ahmadinejad and that “we should sit together and negotiate.”

But the government’s response to Monday’s demonstrations was anything but conciliatory. Many witnesses said the police and Basij militia members were more aggressive than at any time since last summer, beating protesters with chains and truncheons and arresting hundreds of them in cities across Iran.

In the days after the protests, hard-liners stepped up their warnings. On Thursday, the intelligence minister, Heidar Moslehi, lashed out at Mr. Rafsanjani and accused him of siding with those who oppose the Islamic system, in comments reported by Fars, another semiofficial news agency.

“Shockingly, Rafsanjani expresses the same ideas as the leaders of the conspiracy,” Mr. Moslehi said.

The intelligence minister also seemed to throw down the gauntlet to moderates, accusing them of joining the assault on Ayatollah Khamenei.

“A lot of forces that were expected to support the supreme leader instead went with those who rose against the supreme leader,” he said.

One prominent conservative who has been critical of Mr. Ahmadinejad, Habibollah Asgaroladi, said the opposition had grown more “antirevolutionary,” the Khabar Online Web site reported.

Many in the opposition have echoed those warnings, from the other side.

“The regime is on a path which threatens its own survival,” declared the Iranian Writers’ Society, in a statement released Tuesday and posted on opposition Web sites. “Those who sow the wind will harvest a typhoon.”

Burned ayatollah photo sparks new Iranian protests

TEHRAN, Iran — Police surrounded the campus of Tehran University on Sunday, trapping hundreds of students protesting what they said were fabricated government images of the burning of a photo of the Islamic Republic's revered founder.

State television has repeatedly shown images, ostensibly taken during student-led protests on Dec. 7, of unidentified hands burning and tearing up pictures of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. It was a grave and illegal insult against the former leader still widely respected in the country and the elite Revolutionary Guard, the country's most powerful military force, called for the trial and punishment of those responsible.

Video circulated widely on the Internet on the day of last week's protests also showed photos of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad being burned as well as one photo of Khamenei and Khomeini side by side going up in flames. The faces of those burning the pictures could not be seen and loud chants against the government were heard in the background.

Khamenei, who has the final say on all state matters, appealed for calm but suggested the opposition was creating a hostile environment.

"Some have converted the election campaign into a campaign against the entire system," he said without naming any opposition leaders. "We call on those who are angry to remain calm."

Students, who led Sunday's protests, contended the images of burning photos were fabricated by government agents as a pretext for further crackdowns on the opposition.

Tens of thousands of students protested last Tuesday on campuses in the capital Tehran and other parts of the country, the largest anti-government rallies in months. There were also a number of demonstrations outside of campuses.

Many protesters shouted slogans against Khamenei and Ahmadinejad and chanted "Death to the Dictator."

Tens of thousands of hard-line clerics rallied in cities across the country on Saturday to denounce those who burned photos of Khamenei, the second straight day of protests by angry government supporters.

Khomeini, who led the 1979 Islamic Revolution, is revered by both the opposition and the ruling system. But Khamenei is a much more divisive figure, seen by the opposition as an dictator who rules with an iron fist.

During last week's rallies, protesters shouted "Death to the oppressor, whether it's the shah or the leader!" — making a daring comparison between Khamenei and the pro-U.S. shah, despised in Iran since his overthrow.

Opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi, Iran's powerful prime minister in the 80s, was strongly supported by Khomeini against Khamenei, Iran's then-president. When massive street demonstrations erupted over June's disputed presidential election, the opposition led by Mousavi borrowed tactics from Khomenei's Islamic Revolution, such as shouting "Allahu Akbar" from the rooftops of Tehran in a nightly protest.

Mousavi has said his supporters love Khomeini and would not take actions that insulted him. The opposition contends the fabricated images are being used by the regime to discredit the pro-reform movement.

Khamenei warned opposition leaders to stay away from protesters.

"Why don't they learn when leaders of oppression and arrogance, the U.S., France and Britain, support them," state TV quoted Khamenei as saying. "Open your eyes and stay away," he said.

Hundreds of pro-reform students protested against the government on the campus of Tehran University Sunday, denying the accusations they had any connection with the images. Dozens of police surrounded the campus.

The Revolutionary Guard called for the legal action against those who burned the photos of Khomenei.

"The Revolutionary Guard ... won't tolerate any silence or hesitation in the immediate identification, trial and punishment of those carrying out this ugly insult and the agents behind them," it said in a statement posted on its Web site.

Under the law, insults to the late or current supreme leader can lead to two years of prison.

The Guard, which is tasked with defending the clerical regime that came to power in Iran in 1979 under Khomeini's leadership after the pro-U.S. shah was overthrown, was at the forefront of crushing the post-election unrest.

Reformists contend that Ahmadinejad was re-elected in June by massive vote fraud that set off huge street protests. The protests evolved into a broader confrontation against the country's ruling theocracy, but eventually died down in the face of a harsh crackdown by security forces stifled the street demonstrations.

(This version CORRECTS ADDS images also showed pictures of Khamenei, Ahmadinejad being burned; corrects spelling of Mousavi; ADDS context; minor EDITS throughout; AMENDS overline)

8.12.09

Iranians take "Allah" emblem off flag

In the video below protesters are shown waving the Iranian tricolor flag without the "Allah" emblem of the Islamic Republic and chanting "death to the dictator". This video and similar ones were beamed worldwide.

Protesters Burn Khomeini/Khamenei Posters

Brave Iranians Maintain Defiance

Sharif University students protest against the government of Iran



And Tehran University students protest against the government of Iran



And Science & Technology Uni of Tehran students' protest against the government of Iran



And Azad University of Mashhad students protest against the government of Iran



And Isfahan University students protest against the government of Iran

6.12.09

Obama security adviser: Picture not good on Iran

President Barack Obama's national security adviser says the door remains open for Iran to work with other countries on its nuclear program. But James Jones also says the "picture is not a good one."

Jones says the clock is ticking toward the end of the year. That's when Obama has said it would be clear whether Iran was ready to work with the United States, other U.N. Security Council members and Germany to assure the world it was not trying to build a nuclear weapon.

So far, Iran has rejected calls to enter negotiations, and Obama is believed preparing to seek harsher international penalties against Iran. Jones said "the door remains open" for Iran to change course.

Iran says its nuclear program is peaceful and it has a right to enrich uranium to produce fuel for nuclear reactors to generate electricity.

Jones appeared on CNN's "State of the Union."

ANALYSIS: Iran's belligerence masks instability - Washington Times

ANALYSIS: Iran's belligerence masks instability - Washington Times