Alhayat Newspaper reported from Beirut that Lebanese PM Michel Aoun discussed shortening President Michel Suleiman's term, with candidates to be nominated on his electoral lists. Fares Boueiz a former FM and an independent candidate to the Parliament uncovered in a press conference part of his back door negotiations with Aoun. The later is said to have preconditioned ultimate abidance by his block's policies to endorse candidates, a matter that Boueiz found worrying. "I'm afraid that we might face dramatic changes in the coming months leading to reestablishing the republic" Boueiz said.
Interestingly enough, Michael Almurr a prominent Christian politician and a former ally of Aoun framed the electoral battle as one against those who want to "topple the system in Lebanon".
Sources familiar with Aoun's thoughts expressed in privacy, say the former Army chief general considers Suleiman's presidency unconstitutional, on the basis that Suleiman didn't resign his position as Army Chief General, as required by law, 6 months prior to his election.
In addition, Hezbollah is thought to have promised Aoun on the sides of Doha meetings in May 2008 that Suleiman's presidency will be re-assessed in one year before considering other steps towards him.
Time is due, and differences between President Suleiman and Hezbollah-Aoun-Syria-Iran axis are crystallizing.
In early December 2008, Damascus orchestrated a "public" five-day visit for Aoun. Meetings with senior Syrian officials, public and religious ceremonies and casual associations with the Assad family were on Aouns "Syria Journey" agenda.
Stark differences between Aoun's visit and the one payed earlier by president Suleiman were not missed neither in Lebanon nor abroad. Assad explained in an interview granted later to Alhayat that Syria was showing gratitude for Aoun "who played a major role in the preparations for Doha agreement" and that "he sacrificed his 'right' to become the president" to facilitate the agreement that groomed Suleiman as agreed-by-all president. For Assad Suleiman owes his presidency to Syrians Christian ally Michel Aoun, who maitains his position as Damascus beloved son.
During the war in Gaza, a round of rockets was launched from south Lebanon toward northern Israel, among wide speculations that Hezbollah would soon interfere in support for Hamas.
Suleiman was among the fist Lebanese officials to condemn the attacks. "I will not allow southern Lebanon to become a rocket launching pad" against Israel he said while stressing the centrality of the UNSCR 1701 as the main commander of the situation in the south.
In addition, Suleiman was caught, during this war, in the middle of the escalating intra-Arab tensions. He was forced to attend the Arab emergency summit convened by Syria and Qatar in Doha, after enormous political and public pressure from Hezbollah and company on him to choose between the Doha summit or the one already scheduled in Kuwait and supported by Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
In Doha, however, Suleiman managed to walk a fine line. Acknowledging that the summit failed to reach the needed quorum, he never, in his speech, referred to the gathering as "summit" but rather as "emergency consultation meeting". He also made sure to highlight Lebanon's supportive position to the Arab Initiative For Peace, which Assad, in the same meeting and minutes prior to Suleiman's speech, declared dead.
Even when Suleiman hinted that he might be endorsing candidates in the upcoming parliamentary elections, he was met with a fierce campaign, primarily from the Aountists and the Hezbollah-affiliated daily Al-Akhbar. Aoun said that the president's independent block, if materialised won't be more than an extension of the " the Christians of the March 14th forces" adding that "any faction that is not with us is against us. We run in the elections in order to win, and we are not afraid of anyone..."
In the past weeks, Suleiman went against Hezbollah's position on the fate of Doha agreement after the parliamentary elections. While Hezbollah officials have repeated that the Doha agreement will be relevant even after the election, to which March 14 strongly objected, Suleiman said the the Taef Agreement in the primary reference that governs the Lebanese. Contrary to Taef Agreement which gave Birth to Lebanon's constitution, Doha Agreement, reached in the aftemath of the semi-civil war in May 7 2008 gives the Hezbollah-led-opposition veto power in the cabinet.
Suleiman will keep trying to maintain an "at arm's length" relationship with Hezbollah in the hope that the post election equation will provide him with more political advantages to exercise his powers especially if March 14 won the ballots. However if March 8 concluded the race, the president will find himself left with bitter options. Either to concede and play by Hezbollah rules or be forced to leave the office.
In any chance, be it on the fate of Doha, the president's share in the parliament, the balance that the president is trying to maintain in his Arab relations, UNSCR 1701, the relations with Syria, Suleiman is, sooner or later, on a colliding course with Hezbollah-Aoun-Iran Syria axis.
Nadim Koteich
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