Quick Thoughts On Lebanon's Elections

- March 14 reaffirmed a crystal clear majority, putting an end to the myth that the past 2005 majority was a virtual one. Needless to say that Hezbollah chiefNasrallah Nasrallah admitted recently that even in 2005 his party didn't abide by the quatro alliance (Amal, Hezbollah, Almustaqbal, Walid Jumblat) and his base voted for the candidates of Michel Aoun's FPM.

- Aoun lost the Christian mandate.
a In 2005 he won a landslide victory in Keserwan (Maronites King Maker district) leading his opponents by more than 11000 votes, (Jbeil is not counted here) while the numbers of yesterday's race revealed a tight race and granted Aoun the narrowest and most contentious victory. A little more than 1000 votes decided who is the winner, indicating the mood shift among the Christians from 2005.
b Zahle (Nicknamed The Capital Of Catholicism) displayed a 100% shift from March 8 to March 14.
c In Maten, Aoun lost 2 seats to March 14, while the rest of the numbers revealed a neck to neck race, indicating yet another major shift in the Christian vote. While the Armenian vote played the decisive role, March 14 was leading the Maronite votes.. (Exact Numbers to be revealed shortly)
going to March 14, and a very close race in Baabda ()
d In Baabda, Aoun secured the whole seats with the help of the turnout of more than 60% of the Shiite vote.

The Above indicates that Aoun could barely claim the representation of 30% of the Christians, compared to the proclaimed 70% of the 2005 election. It is another myth brought to an end.

- With the turnout, in some Christian districts, reaching 70%, and March 14 winning 55% of the parliament the following could be concluded:
a A multi factional majority supports the political platform of March 14
b A multi factional majority rejects the current status of Hezbollah's weapons.
c A multi factional majority dismisses integrating Lebanon in the Syro-Iranian axis, hence admitting that Lebanon endangered.
d A multi factional majority said that Hezbollah's project only speaks for "Hezbollah's Nation" and not for a diverse slice of the Lebanese.

Bottom line, Aoun ows whatever he won to Shiite and Armenian votes...

Second to Aoun, comes Speaker of The House Nabih Berri as a looser.

Berri lost the Shiite seat in West Beqaa, his party's only seat out of the southern districts. Even the seat he won in Beirut-2 could barely be counted. It is rather a grant from Hezbollah.
Hezbollah, withdrew its candidate, MP Ameen Sherri, for Berri's candidate Hani Koubaisi, in a bid to reach a compromise between Berri and Aoun in their Jezzine dispute, which in the end didn't materialise. Berri lost Jezzine for Michel Aoun.

Not only Berri's block shrunk by three members, it is now less diverse in terms of district and factional representation. It is limited to the Southern districts and holds only one Christian (MichelMusa) and one Druze (Anwar Khalil). Accordingly, Berri is in a weak position to negotiate his re-election as Speaker of the House. It is not like he is not going to be re-elected -so many variables interfere here besides the electoral results- but March 14 enjoys a vantage point to attach some conditions to his re-election.

Third in line is President Michell Suleiman. His closest candidates, Nathem Alkoury (Jbeil), Mansour Albonne (Kisrwan) and Moni Gharious (Maten), fell short of winning their races.

However, Suleiman enjoys a huge common ground with March 14. His inaugural speech is very close to March 14's platform, and the later could easily boost the president's position by adopting this speech as a platform for the coming government.