9.2.10

Iran's Laughable Bluffing

Some remarkable US and Israeli official statements converged recently on toning down the threat of a nuclear Iran, or at least on ranking it lower on the list of threats their countries face.
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told CNN's "State of the Union"that the threat posed by Al-Qaeda and its affiliates in Afghanistan, North Africa, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Yemen exceeds that of a nuclear Iran. The latter is a real threat, she noted, while warning that the United States faces an even greater danger from Al-Qaeda.
Similarly, two weeks ago, Army Radio quoted Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak as saying that Israel's failure to strike a peace deal with the Palestinians is greater threat to the country than a nuclear Iran.
This sudden dilution of the Iranian nuclear threat, though, coincides with some interesting developments. Iran has over the past days announced the following:

  • It officially decided to enrich at least some of its low-enriched uranium stockpile to 20 per cent, considered the threshold value for highly enriched.
  • It intends to construct 10 new enrichment facilities within the next year.
  • It has launched two production lines to build unmanned aircraft with surveillance and attack.
  • It has announced it will soon deploy a missile air defence system more powerful than the advanced Russian S-300 system.
How could one comprehend the cited US and Israel laid-back positions in light of Iran's hot air? In fact both countries are nearing the conclusion that Iran's purported courage is eventually turning into bravado.
The close to worst case scenario was presented by US intelligence chief Dennis Blair in a written testimony to Congress. Blair reaffirmed the conclusions of the 2007 NIE assessment saying that Iran "has the scientific, technical and industrial capacity to eventually produce nuclear weapons, making the central issue its political will to do so".
"We continue to assess Iran is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapon (...) should it choose to do so" he wrote to the congress, while casting uncertainty on whether Iran will eventually decide to build nuclear weapons.
Even the way less tolerant Israeli intelligence has been pushing forward the due date for a deployable Iranian nuclear bomb. Last June, Mossad Chief Meir Dagan, warned that Iran would be capable of developing and launching its first nuclear weapon by 2014, given its program "has no technical glitches (...) or does not malfunction in any way", which is not the case up till now.
The BBC’s Jon Leyne described Iran’s plans to have 10 new enrichment facilities operational within the next year as “almost laughably ambitious” given that it’s taken years bring the Natanz facility online and it still experiences problems.
Now the above shouldn't be confused with a fake peace of mind, otherwise the world will easily be sleepwalking into an post nuclear Iran Middle East.
The limited luxury of time available before the Mullahs could mushroom-cloud the sky somewhere on the planet, should be wisely invested. As essential as rushing to impose sanctions on the regime, is the attention should be payed to the internal situation in Iran, coupled with serious support to a more and more radicalized Green Movement.

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