24.10.09

Will Obama Escape the Charlie Brown Syndrom?

Iran goes by its own book. Negotiate at length then ask for more time while confusing the very basis of the negotiations.

Is it the IAEI proposal to ship 75% of Iran's LEU stockpile that we are waiting an answer to, or the mullah's proposal, vaguely floated through media, to "buy" a significantly higher LEU from outside while keeping whatever domestic LEU Iran possesses, home safe??

Iran rendered the heart of the talks unclear.

If anything, it is applying the centrifuges enrichment "spinning" phenomena to negotiations. Keep rotating around proposals at a high speed till you convert constraints into allowances.
Engagement has simply legitimized Iran's uranium enrichment to the purity level of %5 in clear defiance to 3 UN Security Council resolutions demanding that it suspends its enrichment activities.

Now, unless it is an addictive hobby, one should quit searching for evidence to the military nature of Iran's nuclear program.

Even US president Barak Obama's administration is rethinking previous assessment, which concluded back in 2007 that any secret uranium-processing activities "probably were halted" in 2003 and had not been restarted and that Iran has suspended research on nuclear-warhead design. Washington's change of heart was triggered by the revelation of the Qom facility one month ago according to what two former senior U.S. officials involved in high-level discussions about Iran told the Washington Post.
Careful intelligence gathering, the paper reported, produced a clearer image of the military nature of the Iranian nuclear program.

Intercepted communications revealed a key piece of data: Iranian plans to place only 3,000 centrifuge machines in the plant. That number is too small to furnish fuel for a civilian power plant, but just big enough to supply Iran annually with up to three bombs' worth of weapons-grade fuel, the former officials said.
(...) Intelligence analysts calculated that it would take Qom's high-end centrifuges at least 20 years to produce enough low-enriched uranium to meet the needs of a typical 1,000 megawatt nuclear power reactor for a year.


It is still too early, however, to cheer.

There is always a critical delay before a change of heart is adopted as a policy, given in this case, Iran's bluffing proficiency and Obama's lack of immunity to the self-deceiving power of the strategy of hope. And in this sense Obama is about to outdo the Great Pumpkin Charlie Brown, as per



It is worth noting, in the meantime, that Iranian nuclear scientists are not politely standing in line waiting the cue from Vienna, Geneva or elsewhere to proceed on the terms of a final deal.
Thousands of centrifuges are spinning in known, and most probably unknown, sites in Iran feeding Iran LEU stock with at least 4.5 Kg per day.

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